Amid a crushing European heat wave, things are about to get hotter for transportation systems

Extreme weather is forecast to hit roads, railways, waterways, ports and airports between 2051 and 2080. Assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation on domestic transport: towards climate-resilient transport systemspublished by the UN Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE).

“The current extreme heat in Western Europe has highlighted the climate risks and the consequences for transport,” a UN/ECE spokesperson said UN news.

Some of those consequences are playing out in real time. Heat-related delays or cancellations of trains in many countries, including Belgium, Denmark, France and the United Kingdom, are due to buckling asphalt, track deformation, onboard air conditioning failures, faulty traffic lights, river navigation bottlenecks, traffic delays to reduce kinetic stress on extensive tracks along cables and signaling of overheating and melting, the UNECE said.

Key findings

The report’s key findings show:

• Key risks to transportation systems include flooding, high temperatures, reduced snow, ice and permafrost, and sea level rise
• Transport infrastructure does is expected to experience temperatures above 25°C for another 10 to 50 days per yearwith some areas experiencing up to 200 days per year above this threshold, increasing the risk of road surface deterioration, thermal expansion of bridge connections, track deformation and bushfires around infrastructure
• Recent estimates show this By 2100, 71 to 89 percent of ports worldwide will be at risk from extreme sea storms
• Around five million Europeans and the transport infrastructure they depend on could experience coastal flooding almost annually by 2100

‘Dramatic consequences’

Economic losses due to extreme weather can be enormous if inactive, the report shows.

“Transport systems are critical to the smooth functioning of our societies and economies,” said UNECE Executive Secretary Tatiana Molcean, but “disruptions can have consequences dramatic consequences for communities and entail enormous financial costs.”

For example, during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, there was $232 billion in damage, with port-specific damage at $7.5 billion per year and annual systemic risk to global maritime transport, trade, supply chains and economic activity estimated at $81 billion and $122 billion, respectively.

Grim projections

The report also contained gloomy forecasts for the regions, with heavy rainfall in areas already affected by extreme events, including the west coast of Norway, the Alps, the Balkans, northern Türkiye, parts of Central Asia, the coast of British Columbia and the east coast of the United States.

Such conditions would increase the risks of landslides, dike failure, drainage overload and loss of infrastructure on the road, rail and inland waterway network.

At the same time, increased disruption risks to railways, including track distortion and signal overheating, are expected to impact Europe, where 90 percent of the European E-rail network would experience temperatures above 25°C for another ten days between 2050 and 2080compared to 1970 to 2000, and exposed to an additional 10 days of temperatures above 32°C.

Adjustment ‘is a necessity’

Adaptation measures deliver multiple benefits, including avoiding or reducing economic losses, safeguarding investments, protecting operational continuity and enabling higher productivity, the report said.

“As extreme weather events are no longer a future risk but a reality today, adapting transport infrastructure is a necessity,” said UNECE chief Molcean.

According to the World Resources Institute (WRI), every dollar spent on climate adaptation delivers more than $10.50 in economic, social and environmental benefits.

Given worsening climate projections, the report reads:

• Calls for strengthened adaptation efforts at all levels
• Encourages public and private entities to prioritize climate change adaptation and building transportation infrastructure resilience
• Underlines the value of adopting an iterative adaptation process based on analyzing current challenges, assessing future impacts and designing resilience-enhancing measures
• Recommends that policy and legal frameworks are critical to increasing resilience, reducing operational risks and limiting financial losses

Tools to handle temperature events

The report also maps the region’s key domestic transport networks and nodes that require specific attention.

It includes a series of temperature and precipitation projection maps at different thresholds to help government and transportation professionals understand changing conditions and promote local-scale analysis of transportation system vulnerabilities.

View the maps here.

What actually works?

The new UN/ECE report also builds on this national mitigation strategies in progress:

• France: A national adaptation plan and a warming pathway initiative prepare the country for temperature increases of up to +3°C by 2100 and include a vulnerability assessment of 21,073 km of the national road network, in addition to the formulation of an adaptation strategy for 3,000 train stations
• Germany: When a 16,000m³ rockfall caused a seven-week closure of a crucial European freight route, a climate impact analysis of slope debris flows and mass movements for the country’s rail network used high-resolution hazard indication maps to evaluate risk exposure and help operators prioritize protective measures
• Portugal: Climate risk and resilience assessment for the 42km Mondego Mobility System found a new Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) network that identified adaptation measures for floods, landslides and bushfires, resulting in the implementation of resilient pavement and high-temperature drainage systems designed for 100-year flood rates