Jeff Probst slams Kalshi and Polymarket over spoilers

Jeff Probst slams prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for allowing users to trade on who won ‘Survivor’ season 50, saying the companies “incentivize people to lie, cheat and steal to get ahead.”

“They found a way to take advantage of this [the show]”, he says Variety. “It doesn’t sit well with me as a person. I understand: they’ve built a great company. They don’t care.”

Aubry Bracco wasn’t officially crowned the sole survivor of “Survivor 50” until Wednesday night’s finale, but many fans were spoiled for her victory beforehand due to widespread reports of her chances against Kalshi and Polymarket. On both platforms, she was predicted to have a greater than 80% chance of winning before the season even premiered. By the finals, Kalshi’s ‘Survivor’ market had reached $32.7 million in volume, with 97% odds for Bracco.

Just before the premiere debuted on Wednesday night, Kalshi sent a push notification that read: “Survivor S50 finale TONIGHT. Aubry’s at 97% – is the island decided yet?”

Probst discovered how much money was in Kalshi’s ‘Survivor’ market, and that they first sent out the brazen notification while being interviewed by Variety. “I’m not happy about it,” he said. “I’m learning this in real time – will this be announced before our finals?”

As reported by VarietyHollywood executives are concerned that the growing popularity of prediction markets is leading to insider trading and that widespread spoilers will reduce suspense and hurt the ratings of their shows. But Kalshi is confident that the insider trading ban is being effectively enforced and that the ‘Survivor’ market has been thoroughly investigated. Company executives believe traders are drawing on public rumors on Reddit and other online communities – and while the anonymous people starting these rumors may be insiders breaking their NDAs, the traders who listen to them are still following the law. Therefore, it is not up to Kalshi to tackle them harshly.

The cast and crew members of “Survivor” all sign agreements prohibiting the use of inside information for gambling or any monetary gain, and additional reminders — specifically mentioning Kalshi and Polymarket — were sent during the release of season 50. CBS is also including language about prediction markets in future “Survivor” contracts.

But Probst argues that it’s unfair to put the onus on networks and studios to control the spread of these spoilers.

“Obviously, if 90% of people vote for someone, there is a leak. But if you look at us, as if we have a problem, the producers are the mirror pointing the wrong way,” he says. “[Prediction market platforms] are the ones with the problem, not us. We made our show in a vacuum, and we keep it very tightly controlled, but if you’re foolish and naive enough not to think that someone could leak it, then that’s your problem.

He continues, “If the idea is that ‘Survivor’ needs to better control our spoilers, you just don’t know anything about people. That’s ridiculous. You’re telling me there’s a way I can make money by sharing the information I have, and I might never get caught? Of course people are going to do that. And if I found out anyone on our show had bet on this, they’d be fired.”

In a new statement, Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana emphasizes the company’s position that prediction markets can complement the reality TV experience, creating excitement rather than stifling viewership. But the company is now taking Probst’s concerns to heart.

“If the market volume on ‘Survivor’ is any indication, this isn’t something that will stop people from caring about ‘Survivor,’” says Diana. “That said, we are looking at adding product features to avoid spoilers.”