Who Owns Travel in 2046? Artificial intelligence, trust and power are redrawing the map | News
Who will control travel in 2046: AI companies, governments or the travelers themselves? What will determine value in an AI-driven industry? And will travel remain accessible to everyone, or become a privilege?
These questions were at the heart of the inaugural Leadership Exchange, organized by Phocuswright, a leading global travel research and events company, and ITB Berlin, on March 3, 2026, at CityCube Berlin.
The year is 2046: AI companies control global data flows, travelers rely on intelligent agents to plan and book trips, and some destinations are restricting access to combat overtourism. This is not science fiction, but one of the plausible futures that senior tour leaders envision during the Leadership Exchange behind closed doors.
The Leadership Exchange at ITB Berlin 2026, held under Chatham House Rule, brought together industry leaders in a strategic think tank to answer four key questions: Who possesses trust? Where is value in an AI-native industry? Is traveling good or a privilege? And will the sector consolidate or fragment? The goal: to go beyond trend stories and provide actionable insights for companies, governments and stakeholders undergoing a period of deep transformation.
From all the discussions, a clear story emerged: Artificial intelligence will dramatically reduce friction in travel, but in doing so it will fundamentally redistribute power.
“The travel industry is undergoing a structural shift unlike anything we have seen since the early days of digitalization,” said Dr. Mario Tobias, CEO of Messe Berlin. “With the Leadership Exchange, we have created a space where decision-makers not only discuss the future, but also actively shape it. The choices we make now in the areas of trust, data and value creation will determine the sector for decades to come.”
Trust becomes the new currency
In a world mediated by AI, trust is no longer anchored in a single player. Instead, it becomes fragmented and more valuable than ever. Trust is built from countless micro-interactions and human signals, such as user-generated content, and must be actively shaped at every step of the customer journey.
At the same time, multiple AI-driven booking channels risk blurring accountability, increasing the likelihood of ‘catastrophic’ short-term breaches of trust.
“Trust is not an algorithm. There is no one recipe, and in the future not only companies, but also consumers will be assessed on whether they can be trusted,” says Mieke De Schepper, CEO of Sunweb Group.
AI shifts value and challenges brands
As AI agents take over search and discovery, personalization is emerging as the biggest opportunity for the industry. Travel experiences are tailored in real time, based on deep data insights and individual preferences.
However, this shift comes at a cost: traditional intermediaries may lose relevance, and even strong brands may see their influence erode as the ‘source of truth’ becomes the key differentiator.
“By 2029, discovery as we know it will be almost gone. The real value will be in personal agents acting on our behalf,” said Timothy O’Neil-Dunne, director at T2Impact.
Access to travel is growing and spreading
While technology could make travel more seamless and inclusive, structural tensions remain. Easier mobility can lead to more open and connected societies, but can also intensify overtourism and put pressure on infrastructure.
At the same time, economic inequality, geopolitics and regulations will increasingly determine who can travel, making mobility a privilege for some rather than a universal right.
“To control immigration and overtourism, travel is increasingly becoming a privilege. Countries will either find a way out of tourism with a visa, or simply price people out,” said Stephen Joyce, Global Strategy Lead at Protect Group.
Fragmentation versus consolidation: an open question
AI has the potential to empower smaller players through hyper-personalization, allowing niche providers to reach highly targeted audiences. At the same time, control over data could lead to powerful monopolies.
The future travel ecosystem may ultimately be shaped by this tension between decentralization and concentration.
Despite differing perspectives, participants agreed that the next three years will be decisive: the choices made now around data ownership, trust frameworks and technology integration will determine the industry’s trajectory over the coming decades. As one participant put it: the future of travel should not be predicted, but actively shaped.
