Entertainment

Rankings and contenders of leading actresses (drama).

Variety The Awards Circuit section is home to all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety awards editor-in-chief Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect the personal preferences of any individual participant. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Forecasts are updated every Thursday.

Zendaya in “Euphoria”

HBOMax


Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series (Updated: April 16, 2026): We look at a competitive landscape of talented women vying for the attention of Television Academy voters.

Rhea Seehorn, who took home the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Awards for Apple’s “Pluribus,” comes off the fall awards circuit and appears to be an early frontrunner as her show is also among the top drama series contenders. However, Keri Russell, who wowed at the Actor Awards (formerly the SAG Awards), is hoping the third time is the charm for Netflix’s political thriller ‘The Diplomat’.

Two-time Emmy winner Zendaya is joining the fray for what could be the final season of HBO Max’s ‘Euphoria’ (still unconfirmed by the network). The megastar, along with ‘Hacks’ lead actress Jean Smart, could be on the brink of history and become the first woman to win every season of their respective series. In Emmy history, the only performer to win every season of a series (that lasts at least three seasons) in an acting category is Bill Cosby, who won all three seasons of the drama “I Spy” (1966-1968).

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Regardless, Zendaya remains undefeated in the main drama actress category. Her first win in 2020, at age 24, made her the youngest winner in category history. Her second win, along with additional nominations as a producer for outstanding drama series, also made her the youngest woman nominated for producing at the Emmys, as well as the youngest two-time lead actress nominee. Will there be more history to come?

She’ll have to fend off a barrage of newcomers from critically acclaimed freshman shows, including Michelle Pfeiffer in Paramount+’s “The Madison,” Chase Infiniti in “The Testaments,” Hulu’s spinoff “The Handmaid’s Tale” and Sarah Goldberg in AMC’s new critically acclaimed series “The Audacity.”

There are also returning nominees, including Emmy winner Jennifer Aniston from the Apple drama “The Morning Show,” along with co-star Reese Witherspoon. Carrie Coon could make a comeback in the third season of “The Gilded Age” after nabbing a nomination in 2024 and gaining recognition last year for “The White Lotus” in supporting drama actress. Last year, many experts predicted that Kathy Bates would make history with the first season of the reboot ‘Matlock’, but would lose to Britt Lower due to ‘Severance’ (which is not back in the current eligibility cycle). Bates may be looking for redemption this time around and is one of the few bright spots for CBS in the major categories of broadcast television.

It’s also worth noting that Kristin Scott Thomas has transitioned from a supporting role to a starring role in her work on Apple TV+’s ‘Slow Horses.’ It remains to be seen whether this turns out to be the right move. Still, an acting win for a show that has already earned two surprise Emmys in recent years — writing in 2024 and directing in 2025 — won’t be far behind.

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A very vocal faction on social media is wondering how long the Emmys can continue to overlook ‘Industry’ stars Marisa Abela and Myha’la Herrol in the critically acclaimed British financial drama? Despite Abela’s BAFTA win in 2025, the series and its performers have failed to garner a single Primetime Emmy nomination in its first three seasons. Could a late Tatiana Maslany-“Orphan Black”-style nomination be in play for the duo?

The rest of the field will continue to be shaken up in the coming months, with the contenders rising and falling along the way. All official category entries have yet to be confirmed and anything could change before the end of the entry cycle.

The Emmy Awards timeline begins with voting in the nomination round from June 11 to 22, with nominations announced on July 8. Final voting will take place from August 17 to 26, leading to the Creative Arts Awards and Governors Gala on September 5 and 6, culminating in the Emmy Awards ceremony on September 14 on NBC.

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