Potential lockout threatens 2027 MLB season

PHOENIX – When Jerry Colangelo built the 2001 World Series champion Arizona Diamondbacks, he did so with an $85 million payroll that was just $26 million short of the league-leading New York Yankees ($111 million). 

Colangelo doesn’t think the same achievement would be possible today.

“It had never been done before in the history of baseball, and probably never will be again in today’s economic structure,” Colangelo said. “Those with the real money, I’m talking about maybe three or four teams – the L.A. Dodgers, the Mets, the Yankees – there’s only a handful of teams really that can compete financially. 

“For everyone else, it’s a long shot. I mean, big-time long shot.”

As Major League Baseball’s collective bargaining agreement approaches its Dec. 1 expiration date, Colangelo’s opinion is shared by numerous owners, who are aggressively pushing for a strict salary cap in negotiations for the next CBA. Driven by high-spending teams such as the Dodgers and Mets, owners argue that a cap will ensure competitive balance, while players and agents view it as a thinly veiled attempt to limit salaries.

The impasse is casting a pall over the 2026 season.

The chances of a compromise being reached before the current agreement expires are considered slim by many. In February, MLB Players Association Interim Executive Director Bruce Meyer told ESPN a lockout is “all but guaranteed.” 

Similar to 2021, a lockout would mean no free agency or trades, but this time regular season games could be lost as well. 

“I think both sides have baseball’s best interest in mind and in the end they’re going to work it out,” said Padres manager Craig Stammen, who is also a former player and coach. “I’m not too worried about a potential lockout honestly. It’s not anything that I can control. I spent a lot of time on it as a player rep the last time it went around and I’m happy not being a part of it this year.”

This situation isn’t anything new for the league or those involved. The ninth work stoppage in MLB history, and the most recent, was put into effect on Dec. 2, 2021, immediately after the previous agreement expired. Back then, the disagreement between the league and the Major League Baseball Players Association focused on compensation for younger players and solutions to prevent teams from purposefully tanking to improve their position in the draft.

More than three months later, the league and the union finally agreed on a new five-year contract. As a result of the temporary lockout, Opening Day was delayed.

This time around, the question itself is singular, but the implications are anything but.

Given the payroll disparity throughout the league, owners believe a salary cap is necessary for the game’s future. For obvious reasons, players strongly oppose the idea, despite the fact that over 90% of the World Series champions in the past two decades were in the top half of the league’s payroll. 

If a cap is to be instituted, players have countered with the possibility of a salary floor to ensure teams like the Marlins are forced to spend more.

“Teams spending money is never bad for baseball and never bad for players, ever, in any situation,” the Athletics’ Brent Rooker told ESPN.

Last season, the Los Angeles Dodgers shattered MLB spending records with a total expenditure of approximately $514.6 million, which includes both player payroll and luxury tax payments. The actual player payroll component was roughly $345.3 million, alongside a record tax of $169.4 million. The Dodgers’ 2025 total spending was roughly seven times the $68.7 million payroll of the lowest-spending team, the Miami Marlins, highlighting the league’s spending disparity. 

Perhaps not surprisingly, L.A. won its second straight World Series title.

This isn’t the first time MLB owners have pushed for a salary cap, but history doesn’t suggest that this dispute will have a simple resolution. The same debate resulted in a work stoppage back in 1994 – the longest in the league’s history. It spanned 232 days, from Aug. 12 to April 2, 1995, and led to the cancellation of the remainder of the regular season, the postseason and the World Series. 

Despite the entrenched viewpoints, Angels general manager Perry Minasian isn’t as concerned about a lack of parity in the league.

“We’ve seen teams with big payrolls have success and we’ve seen teams with small payrolls have success,” Minasian said. “At the end of the day, we’re worried about now. We’re worried about this season and we’ll see what happens.”

The threat of a lockout and its potential implications will loom over the league this season, but ultimately both sides want to see the game continue to flourish. 

“I think it’s all about trying to grow the game and do what’s better for the game,” Padres general manager A.J. Preller said. “It’s always better when you’re on the field playing. I’m sure the labor situation is gonna be there in the background this season, but most of the time over the last 20 years they’ve been able to find a way to get it worked out in a way that’s positive for baseball.”

Related