SAF production volumes still disappointing | News
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released estimates showing that global production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is expected to reach approximately 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, accounting for just 0.8% of jet fuel consumption, at a cost to airlines of US$4.3 billion.
“It looks set to be another disappointing year for SAF production. Five years after pledging to reach net zero by 2050, SAF production will account for just 0.8% of airline fuel consumption this year. The path to meeting 65% of our needs by 2050 is becoming increasingly difficult with each year of ineffective government policies and the clear lack of interest from oil companies. The current energy shock could hamper the development of renewable energy sources, including SAF, even more urgent. But we have yet to see Either the energy shock, the need to develop energy independence and employment, or the urgency to mitigate climate change, is reflected in the incentives needed to create a viable SAF market,” said Willie Walsh, Director General of IATA.
To accelerate the scale-up of SAF, IATA calls for coordinated action around four priorities:
Expand the supply of renewable energy to support SAF production and ensure sufficient raw materials and clean energy are available.
Ensure open access to fuel infrastructure, including pipelines, storage and airport fuel systems, to enable fair competition and efficient distribution.
Strengthen policy support through an effective sequence of production incentives and investment frameworks that provide certainty and reduce risks before mandates are imposed.
Enable a global SAF market with sufficient volumes at commercially viable prices that are critical to the airline’s financial and economic sustainability. A book-and-claim system is essential to transform the SAF market from local to global by making it accessible to airlines and SAF manufacturers regardless of where they live. A global SAF market must also be supported by harmonized standards that create sustainable rules and fair competition.
The e-SAF problem
In addition to SAF (from biofuel sources), e-SAF (electro-SAF) will also play an increasing role in decarbonizing air transport. The conversion of renewable electricity using a power-to-liquid (PtL) process can produce e-SAF. E-SAF does not require biomass or waste oil, but it does require large amounts of sustainable electricity, green hydrogen, water and CO2.
The EU and Britain have mandated e-SAF production of around 0.6 million tonnes by 2030. However, the global production capacity currently operational and under construction is approximately 0.02 million tonnes, with only a single production site in operation. About 20 commercial-scale refineries would be needed to reach the mandated volume. Furthermore, no new final investment decisions for e-SAF facilities have been taken in the past year.
“Britain and the EU’s 2030 e-SAF targets are more than unrealistic – they are completely disconnected from reality. It is a reckless strategy for creating an energy market to impose mandates before enabling production. Such a strategy will only drive up the price. Combined with fines, it ensures that scarce resources are not allocated to actual CO2 emissions reductions. The strategy is also baffling considering that Europe has the highest prices for renewables energy in the world. Only at that point can mandates deliver the desired results,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist.
Passenger support for decarbonization
IATA’s latest passenger survey (April 2026) shows strong and consistent support for decarbonising air transport. 89% of passengers believe that the industry should continue to reduce emissions even if governments scale back their efforts, and a similar share see flying as essential and something that should be made sustainable, rather than limiting its use.
This support is backed by a willingness to take action: About two-thirds of passengers (66%) say they are willing to pay more to offset emissions, and almost 88% expect ticket prices to rise as a result of sustainability investments.
Passengers are also clearly in favor of ‘real’ solutions to decarbonise the economy, with 25% prioritizing the use of funds for SAF and 23% on emission reduction technologies, well ahead of taxes (10%).
Importantly, sustainability is already influencing behavior: almost half of travelers (48%) look at carbon emissions when choosing flights, and of those who do, more than 85% say it influences their decision, while around three-quarters say they prefer airlines with better environmental records.
Overall, the data points to a clear message: passengers expect air transport to decarbonize, broadly support the transition and are increasingly factoring sustainability into their choices, even as cost and convenience remain important.
