New Propellic research reveals a collapse in travel bookings outside the Middle East | News
Propellic, the leading full-service travel marketing agency, today published its Propellic Travel Marketing Index: Special Intelligence Briefing, The Impact of the 2026 Middle East Conflict on Travel Marketing.
The report, based on 30 days of live performance data from more than 60 mid-market travel brands and 27 destinations, reveals a consistent and alarming pattern: traveler research is increasing, while booking conversions have collapsed.
The conflict in the Middle East has created what Propellic researchers call a “frozen pipeline.” In other words: a structural break between traveler intention and commercial action. In every focus region analyzed, sessions and impressions have increased significantly, while transactions have fallen to or near zero.
The data suggests that much of the increased traffic may be a result of existing travelers checking cancellation policies and keeping an eye on safety advisories, rather than exploring new travel in the region.
Key findings include:
Jordan: 153% increase in sessions, while conversion rates fell 25.81% month-on-month, CGI™ score: 97.99 (maximum recorded gap)
UAE: +12,766% sessions month-on-month; CTR decreased by 22.6%, CGI™ score: 29.1
Saudi Arabia: +209% ad spend year-on-year, but click-through rate fell 22.6% month-on-month, CGI™ score: 28.8
The spillover of Mediterranean sentiment
The report also identifies what Propellic calls the “Mediterranean Sentiment Spillover,” a finding that the crisis of confidence has spread far beyond conflict zones. Greece, Spain and Croatia, none of which are in the conflict zone, show similar patterns, suggesting that broader airspace uncertainty and escalations in travel advisories are suppressing Europe’s summer booking cycles.
Greece: 3.225% increase in sessions year-over-year; while conversion rates are down 35.14% month over month.
Spain: 2,221% increase in sessions year-over-year; while conversion rates are down 47.74% month over month.
“The data is clear,” said John Matson, CRO of Propellic. “Travelers are willing to travel and are actively researching these destinations. They haven’t lost interest. They’ve lost confidence. And that distinction is hugely important for how travel brands now have to allocate budget and messages.”
Where the demand is going: engagement cluster
The report identifies geographic clusters (such as in Southeast Asia) that show both month-on-month and year-on-year improvements. Propellic’s analysis suggests the reason for this lies in travelers’ perception of safety distance from the conflict, rather than the traditional appeal of destinations.
“This pattern would not have been visible by analyzing individual destinations separately,” says John Matson. “It only becomes clear when you look at the full data set. And it has significant implications for how travel brands need to think about budget allocation over the next 90 days.”
About the report
Based on 30 days of live performance data from more than 60 mid-market travel brands and 27 destinations, the report reveals a consistent and alarming pattern: traveler research is increasing while booking conversions have collapsed.
The briefing introduces the Surety Gap Index™ (CGI™), a proprietary Propellic metric that quantifies the difference between traveler curiosity and booking confidence, revealing which destinations are most at risk and where demand is quietly migrating.
Report availability
The report The Impact of the 2026 Middle East Conflict on Travel Marketing is available for free download here. The briefing includes full CGI™ scores for all 9 focus destinations, the Engagement Recovery Map for all 27 sample markets, the Japan Commercial Anchor case study and the full Fortification Playbook.
