New housing sale shocked, but are these figures legitimate?

By Census: New sale of home sales of new single -family homes in August 2025 was a seasonal annual rate of 800,000, according to estimates that are today released jointly by the US Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 20.5 percent (± 21.8 percent)* above the percentage of July 2025 of 664,000, and is 15.4 percent (± 25.1 percent)* above August 2024 of 693,000.

This was an important beat of estimates, but if you have followed the purchase request data for new home sales that are provided by the Mortgage banking association Every month – data that I believe many people are still not aware – it should not have been a surprise that the new home sales increased.

As a general rule, when there is an extreme sales deviation for new houses – positive or negative – there is a good chance that it will be revised later. This is just how allotment revisions work. Given that the interest rates are already eight weeks lower than 6.64%, we should have anticipated some growth.

For sale inventory and the range of months The seasonal suitable estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August 2025 was 490,000. This is 1.4 percent (± 1.3 percent) below the estimate of July 2025 of 497,000 and is 4.0 percent (± 5.2 percent)* above the estimate of August 2024 of 471,000. This represents an offer of 7.4 months against the current sales percentage. The supply of the months is 17.8 percent (± 16.2 percent) under the estimate of July 2025 of 9.0 months and is 9.8 percent (± 17.2 percent)* under the estimate of August 2024 of 8.2 months.

This year the builders have seen a significant decrease in the monthly range of recent highlights, some of which say it is useful, because it now enables more houses to build. However, the builders still have a considerable number of completed units for sale and houses they have not yet started with construction, so I would not encourage the monthly story story yet. Completed units for sale are still more than 120,000 – a number that have been a red flag for the builders for decades and usually means that permits decrease

The graphs below offer a snapshot of various important data points from the new Home Sales report that has been released today.

Conclusion

I do not expect any surprises in the existing home sales report, which will be released on Thursday. Today’s new sales figures were so impressive that many people are skeptical about them, despite the display of some signs of growth.

Speaking of growth, the weekly purchase request data for existing houses were also released today, which marked the best eight -week streak of the year, because the mortgage interest rate fell from 6.64% to around 6%. Today’s report showed 0.3% week to week of growth and 18% year after year, but it was the best weekly line of 8 weeks before 2025.

For the new Home Sales Report, revisions expect the figures to lower, but not a discount on the fact that the property data has improved since the rates have gone lower in the past eight weeks.