YouTube TV Blackout is costing Disney $4.3 million per day in lost revenue
Disney is likely feeling financial strain from the continued outages of ESPN, ABC and other networks on Google’s YouTube TV.
Disney is losing an estimated $30 million a week as its networks are pulled from YouTube TV, which amounts to nearly $4.3 million a day, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley. The figure comes from a research note from Morgan Stanley equity analysts Benjamin Swinburne and Thomas Yeh, who said in their financial forecast for Disney’s year-end 2025 quarter that they “combine the 14-day impact of the ongoing YouTube TV blackout, which we estimate is a revenue headwind of $60 million.”
November 11 is the 12th day of the Disney blackout on YouTube TV. Morgan Stanley analysts wrote that they expect the Disney-YouTube TV dispute to be resolved later this week, but estimate that each week the networks are dark on YouTube TV, Disney’s adjusted earnings per share will fall 2 cents.
Disney will report earnings for the September 2025 quarter (the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025) on Thursday, November 13, before the market opens. Analysts on average expect Disney to report revenue of $22.78 billion and earnings per share of $1.02, according to financial data provider LSEG.
YouTube TV customers have already missed two consecutive weeks of “Monday Night Football” on ESPN and ABC (Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers on Nov. 10 and Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys on Nov. 3), not to mention two Saturdays of college football and other sports, plus ABC News primetime shows, “World News Tonight” and “Good Morning America,” and more.
Of course, YouTube is also undoubtedly feeling financial pressure from the impasse, as an unknown number of subscribers have dropped the service due to the loss of ESPN, ABC and other Disney nets. According to a survey conducted last week, 24% of YouTube TV subscribers said they have already canceled or are planning to cancel the service due to the Disney blackout. A YouTube representative said: “While subscriber churn is always unfortunate, it has been manageable and does not align with the findings of this study.”
This Sunday, YouTube TV began alerting subscribers about how to manually apply a one-time $20 credit to their account due to the Disney transportation dispute, an effort to limit cancellations.
Disney’s networks went dark on the YouTube TV service just before midnight ET on Thursday, October 30, after Disney and Google fell far apart on a deal before the previous contract expired. The companies are fighting over price – with Google claiming that Disney is asking for an unprecedented rate increase, while Disney counters that Google “refuses to pay fair rates for our channels.”
The fight comes after the August launch of ESPN Unlimited, an all-in-standalone streaming package that offers everything from the sports giant in one place. Morgan Stanley’s Swinburne and Yeh said they believe ESPN Unlimited’s debut “went well compared to our modest expectations.” The analysts estimate that ESPN Unlimited will have approximately 3 million subscribers by September 2026, each generating $18-$20 net effective monthly revenue. “We estimate that ESPN will add approximately $500 million in subscription revenue in FY26, thanks to the launch of ESPN Unlimited,” the analysts wrote.
Morgan Stanley’s forecast does not take into account Disney’s proposed deal, which would give the NFL a 10% stake in ESPN, worth as much as $2.5 billion, which is still pending.
Pictured above: Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (No. 1) battles the Green Bay Packers in the Nov. 10 “Monday Night Football” game at Lambeau Field, which aired on ABC and ESPN.
