Why mortgage purchase apps are on a growth treak of 22 weeks

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My joke about purchase apps -data is that the last time we saw the levels that was so low in the nineties, when it was undoubtedly the most popular new band and “Gangsta’s Paradise” was the number 1 number in America. After nine consecutive weeks of double digits on an annual basis, we have now returned to levels that are comparable to those in 2014, when “Happy” dominated the charts by Pharrell Williams.

Does this mean that existing home sales return to the low levels of 2014, which were approximately 4.75 million? Not exactly. Let me explain.

Purchase apps serve as a trend examination and have a historic closely matching existing home sales. However, in order to show this data to show real growth, it must increase several months with double digits to generate a considerable momentum. In addition, this growth must be confirmed by our weekly pending sales data that I have discussed The most recent episode From the Daily Podcast of the Woningwire.

Given 2024 as a historic low benchmark for Apps, the mortgage interest rate has fallen and this year have generally been lower. Moreover, the number of new entries has also increased compared to the previous year. Because 70% to 80% home sellers are also home buyers, they will fill in purchase requests. Given these two factors, we had room to get higher year after year.

The remarkable thing is that this growth takes place, despite the mortgage interest that is not lower than 6.64% – a level that we need in the past to achieve better housing data.

Last week we saw a flat growth from week to week in purchase applications, with an increase of 0.1% compared to the previous week. The non -adjusted figures rose from 10% from week to week, but we do not count that data. The growth on an annual basis was 16%.

Here are the weekly purchase request data for 2025 so far:

• 11 Positive Lectures
• 9 Negative measurements
• 5 PLAT PRINTS
• 22 consecutive weeks of positive data on an annual basis
• 9 consecutive weeks of double digits, on an annual basis growth

10-year revenue and mortgage interest

In my forecast of 2025 I expected the following series:

• Mortgage interest between 5.75% and 7.25%
• The return of 10 years fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.70%

Last week Jobs Week and two of the four reports were satisfying. The vacancies and unemployed claims were good. However, the ADP report showed a decrease of 33,000 jobs. While the Jobs Friday report (released on Thursday) estimates, this was mainly due to the addition of jobs of the government, which have a seasonal grill in this specific report. If the government positions had not been, we would only have seen 74,000 jobs, about which I wrote.

In any case, when the 10-year return acted at 4.21% earlier in the week, I tweeted on X that unless the labor data gets worse, much of that sentiment is already priced. After the job report defeated estimates on Friday, the 10-year return went back directly to the most important level of 4.35% on the short holiday trade week. The mortgage interest rate became as low as 6.67% to end the week at 6.75%.

Mortgage spreads

The mortgage spreads have been raised since 2022, but have improved since their peak in 2023. We experienced some drama with the spreads in April, because the markets had treated the rates, but things have improved as the market calmed. If the trade war increases in the future and shares will decrease again, we will assess whether the spreads deteriorate. For now, however, the spreads have been performed better because shares have returned to all time.

If the spreads were as bad as at the height of 2023, the mortgage interest would currently be 0.71% higher. Conversely, if the spreads return to their normal reach, the mortgage interest rate would be 0.79% to 0.59% lower than today’s level. Historically, mortgage spreads usually varied between 1.60% and 1.80%.

New offers

Weekly data can be fleeting around the holidays, especially around July 4, which fell on Friday this year. Our new listing data has taken a considerable dip and even fall under the figures from last year. I am not worried about this trend; It will bounce back soon. However, we go for the rest of the year in our seasonal expiry period.

Here are the new list data for last week in recent years:

• 2025: 69,700
• 2024: 71,159

Weekly pending housing sales

You can also see the effect of the holiday in our weekly pending sales data, because it also experienced a considerable decline.

Weekly pending sales for last week in the past two years:

• 2025: 66,967
• 2024: 67,986

Total running housing sales

Our total hanging house sales data are less susceptible to weekly fluctuations and continues to show growth on an annual basis, a trend that continued to exist many weeks before the holiday week.

Weekly pending the sale of the past week in recent years:

• 2025: 396,652
• 2024: 381,054

Home inventory

Our weekly housing inventory data has experienced good growth from week to week; However, this data line is also influenced to a certain extent by the holiday. This remains the best housing story from 2025, because Active Inventory has returned to at least the low levels we saw in 2019.

• Weekly inventory change (27 June-4-Juli): Inventory Rose van 831,110 Unpleasant 853,180
• The same week last year (June 28-5-juli): Inventory Rose van 645.713 Unpleasant 652.518

Price reduction percentage

Our weekly price reduction percentage data is also comparable to our stock data during this holiday week.

Before the holiday week, the housing data showed some resilience, with stabilization in the data lines. However, because of the holiday on July 4, you can see how these two weeks can influence new weekly data.

The coming week: rates in the game again?

Last week, Minister of Finance Scott Bessent announced That the US intends to impose 10% rates on around 100 countries, including those who have negotiated in good faith, in the coming week. It seems that the new deadline for deals is 1 August 2025
This development can have a significant impact on the markets and the mentality of the FED. Moreover, the usual inflation report that the Jacket Week follows will be postponed for a week.

This week we will see some bond auctions, speeches from Federal Reserve Presidents and data on the price index for used authorization. As always, the weekly unemployed claim data will be an important labor market indicator prior to the next FED meeting at the end of the week. Recently the weekly data improvement has shown in the first claims, while the persistent unemployed claim data appears to be better.

In any case, if we receive a new round of the headlines from Trade War, that should be sufficient, together with conversations about the tax assessment, to keep the markets in the summer weeks.