Where baby populations are declining fastest – and the few places where they are growing
The baby boom is credited with building American homes as we know them today. And now, amid an affordability crisis that has pushed the age of a typical first-time homebuyer to an all-time high of 40, the housing market could define the population of babies.
In what is known as the American baby bust, the country’s fertility rate has fallen to an all-time low of 1.6 children per woman in 2024– well below the replacement rate of 2. In the US, the share of residents under the age of 5 has fallen sharply over the past decade.
While declining birth rates are a national story, the pace of change is anything but uniform. Some metro areas are seeing their youngest populations thin out much faster than others, even in regions long considered magnets for families.
A Realtor.com® An analysis of U.S. Census American Community Survey data between 2010 and 2024 shows that nearly every metro area has lost ground when it comes to the share of its population under the age of 5, a sign that adults are almost universally outpacing young children.
This is where the under-five population is declining most rapidly and the few places where it is still growing.
The metros with the sharpest declines
The metros with the sharpest declines in the share of under-fives are clustered in the West, mainly in places that have attracted families.
But it’s important to be precise about what this measure means: This is not a count of the number of babies born or children living in a metro. This concerns the share of the total population under the age of five, which could decline for at least two different reasons: fewer young children or faster growth in other age groups.
This second dynamic will probably come into play in many Western metropolises. Over the past decade, these regions have attracted a large influx of working-age adults and retirees, causing the denominator to grow rapidly. Even if the number of young children remains stable or shows only a modest decline, an influx of adults could still reduce the share under five.
Then there’s the fact that many of these metros started from a very high baseline in 2010.
Utah is the best example. Beehive State metro areas had some of the highest under-5 shares in the data set, meaning they had more “room” to decline as fertility trends cooled and immigration continued to age.
In other words, these results do not automatically mean that these metros will become child-free. Instead, they mean that young children, compared to everyone else who comes to live and age there, makes up a smaller share of the population.
Utah’s baseline is falling the fastest
Five of the steepest drops are in Utah, which is a surprising finding given the state’s reputation for family-friendly living.
Logan, Ogden, Provo and St. George all saw their share of children under the age of five, while the overall population fell by 3.2%, followed closely by Salt Lake Citywhere the stock fell 3.1%.
As previously noted, these metros had some of the highest under-5 shares in the data set in 2010, with an average of 9.8% compared to an average of 6.5% for the data set as a whole.
A shift toward later childbearing, smaller families and faster growth among adults could quickly reduce that share – even if the absolute number of young children does not collapse. At the same time, Utah’s growth increasingly includes working-age transplants and older movers, mechanically lowering the under-five share by expanding the denominator.
Why western growth does not always mean more children
Outside of Utah, the steepest declines in the population share under age five are in smaller western metros – places like Grand Junction, Colorado, and Carson City, NV.
In Grand Junction, the under-5 share fell from 6.6% in 2010 to just 3.6% in 2024 – one of the lowest in the data set. Carson City saw a similar drop, from 6.6% to 4%.
Like Utah’s metros, these cities have become landing spots for retirees and lifestyle-motivated movers — people drawn by mountain views, lower housing costs or tax breaks. That kind of growth could reduce the share of young children, even if birth rates remain stable.
A similar rebalancing is evident in places like Farmington, NM (-2.6%) and Pocatello, ID (-2.5%) – both metro areas where job cycles and migration can be volatile. In smaller cities like these, some shifts at major employers or changes in who comes in and out can quickly tilt the age mix.
The rare metros where the under-five share is growing
In a dataset dominated by declines, only a few metropolises moved in the opposite direction, recording an increase in the share of residents under 5 between 2010 and 2024.
The highlight is Kokomo, IN, where the under-5 share grew from 5.4% to 6.4% – a full 1% gain. Some others posted smaller gains, including Charlottesville, VA (+0.4%), and Decatur and Gadsden, AL (+0.2% each).
The fact that these metros are such major outliers may make them all the more interesting and important to watch, as they could offer the first clues about what works when it comes to attracting and retaining young families in an era of declining fertility and rising costs.
Kokomo offers perhaps the clearest case study.
Far from a booming Sun Belt city, this small industrial metro is located in Indiana’s Rust Belt and was once hit hard by the Great Recession.
But over the past decade, the city has invested heavily in livability: new apartments, renovated homes, expanded parks and trails, walkable streets and the return of public transportation via a five-route free bus system, according to City magazine. The goal was simple: reverse the decline and make Kokomo a place where people want to stay.
These changes are important for one simple reason: they help families stay in place. Many metropolises are losing young households, not because of a lack of demand, but because housing does not fit the next phase of life. New York City is the clear example here: between 2020 and 2023, the Big Apple lost 92,000 children under 5 years old (17% of that population), at a time when the average market rate for an apartment had increased by 30%.
If those rising costs were the poison, then Kokomo’s investment in walkable neighborhoods and affordable housing is the clear antidote. It’s the rare city that has tried to build with families in mind, and the growing number of children under five appears to be an early signal of success.
It’s exactly the kind of turnaround Pawnee City, NE, is hoping for.
Through the Vision 2030 plan, Pawnee City is offering up to $50,000 in down payment assistance to those purchasing new construction homes on revitalized city lots. It’s a flashy and powerful pitch: affordable housing, suitable for modern families, with a sturdy welcome mat out front.
Like Kokomo, Pawnee City understands that the future of cities depends on whether they can make room for families – not just retirees or remote workers, but households looking for community, stability and a path to ownership. And while the scale may be different, the playbook is remarkably similar: build the homes, improve the quality of life, and let the numbers follow.
These outliers may not change the national trend overnight. But they are early signs that with the right ingredients it is still possible to grow the youngest generation, even in places most people expected.
