What we know about the labor market, even without jobs Friday data

What is the Main reason for work weakness?

The Federal Reserve claims that, because the growth of workforce has been considerably delayed, with fewer people looking for work this year, this is the reason why the banengies will be worse in 2025. In fact, Fed chairman Jerome Powell stated on live TV that is now acceptable of job growth from zero to 50,000. Because the growth of the labor force has cooled considerably, this is the main reason why the unemployment rate today is closer to 4% instead of 5%.
Before 2025 I discussed that the unemployment rate would rise above the comfort level of the FED of 4.3%, because the labor market has been mitigated since 2023. The only thing that could prevent this from causing the growth of the workforce to cool, so that the unemployment rate does not increase faster.

Although the unemployment percentage is higher in 2025, if we had experienced the same type of workforce in 2024, we would be closer to 5% than 4% because the labor market cools down and the sectors of the economy shed. Here are the sectors that shed jobs.

Production paths

Production paths have been losing positions since the end of 2022. Although the size of the job loss is not huge, this decrease is not only due to the growth of population growth; It has existed for years. It is a challenge to say that this is due to a lack of growth in the workforce when the FED said that the job data was strong in 2023 because of the growth of the workforce.

Worms

It is no secret that jobs are lost in the housing sector. Now, luckily, the bond market works on the labor model for inflating, so that the long -term income is lower, which in turn reduces the mortgage interest. However, with housing permits at COVID-19 Recession levels and completed sales units at a peak of 14 years, it is not shocking that jobs are lost here.

The job loss in the housing work below in the graph below is small. Still, as you can see, it is never a good sign for the general economy, and traditionally it is never a good sign for the general economy, and the Fed does not really give it until it’s too late. Again, it is positive that the mortgage interest is almost 6% again.

Jobiles claims that data is softer but not break

Since 2022, when I introduced the subject of work in connection with inflation, my point of view has not started to discuss a recession up to the four -week advancing average of unemployed claims 323,000. We have not yet reached that point and there has not been an important outbreak in the data in recent years.

Continuous claims, on the other hand, have reached a three -year high point, which means that it is more difficult to find work if you are unemployed. Usually the FED would be concerned about this, but I believe that their primary care provider is the first unemployed claims that break higher.

Job Opening -Data

Now the details of the vacancies are a favorite of mine – and the Fed. However, many people do not like it because they believe that a considerable number of postal opening posts are fake. However, it has been correlated with the softer labor market, because vacancies have decreased from 12 million to almost 7 million. We have slightly more unemployed employees. This means that this is not related to population growth; The labor market is simply much softer today, but don’t break.

The sub -components of the Job opening data released on Tuesday are very soft, hiring and stop at low levels. However, the dismissal part of the job report remains low, which indicates a softer trend instead of a break. The delay was considerable in 2025 and this data includes some adverse reports for that year.

Conclusion

Let’s keep it simple: the labor market is softer but does not collapse and we can know this, even without the jobs Friday data. A collapsing labor market would include job losses for a few months and an increase in unemployed claims. Currently, GDP growth is still more than 3%for this quarter and the stock prices are almost all time. Moreover, the consumer part of the GDP, which keeps the fuel close, remains strong. As long as people continue to buy goods and services, this economic expansion can continue to progress. What I have shared in this article, however, gives a glimpse of the recent task data when we wait for further data from the government.