What is causing mortgage rates to rise so sharply this year?

Heading into 2026, economists at the National Association of Realtors expected a reversal. Now, not so much.

In the weeks following the launch of a military campaign in Iran, mortgage rates rose so much that a buyer buying a median-priced home in the U.S. lost about $25,000 in purchasing power. The shift forced experts to revise predictions and agents to work harder than ever.

To understand what’s going on, scroll through the interactive timeline below. It shows the average interest rates at different times during the year and the geopolitical factors that have caused these interest rates to rise.

Note: This interactive timeline was created with the help of Claude AI.

Email Taylor Anderson