What happens to HBO under Netflix?

One of the many burning questions about the possible acquisition of Warner Bros. by Netflix is: What would happen to HBO Max? Would customers continue to subscribe to both, or would it eventually roll over to Netflix?

In any case, Netflix immediately said that HBO Max would continue as a separate entity, but made no promises that it wouldn’t ultimately be consumed in Netflix. HBO becoming a tile on Netflix, just as Hulu is slowly being taken over by Disney+, is a likely possibility.

But here’s one that no one seems to be asking: what about the linear HBO service? You know, the groundbreaking network that essentially ushered in the age of cable when it launched in 1972? HBO, the channel that revolutionized “prestige TV” with “The Sopranos,” and everything that came after?

Even if HBO as a brand survives this merger, the idea of ​​HBO as a standalone company may soon be a thing of the past. And it would also pretty much be the final nail in the coffin of the ‘premium cable’ as we knew it.

Paramount has already destroyed the only vibrant Showtime brand — first by shutting down the standalone Showtime app and then renaming its remaining linear channel to “Paramount + With Showtime.” Now, there’s no Showtime infrastructure to speak of, and the cabler’s last remaining shows — like the “Dexter” spinoffs and “Yellowjackets” — are instead being promoted as Paramount+ originals. Showtime, a flagship premium cable network that first launched in 1976, may live on in bits of leftover branding in some corners of the media universe, but it’s largely dead.

FX wasn’t officially a premium cable network because it’s free on basic cable, but it evolved into a “premium” brand, inspired by HBO’s success in delivering its own diet of premium, quality products. Like HBO, FX changed the programming game and, for a moment, made basic cable a hot spot for creators to bring their passion projects, much like AMC during the “Mad Men” and “Breaking Bad” eras. FX still exists, but mostly as a tile on Hulu. Not all FX fare airs on the linear channel, which now schedules mostly library movies and reruns. When people talk about ‘FX’ they are no longer talking about the linear channel. (Meanwhile, with the writing on the wall for linear, AMC has tried to migrate its viewers to its AMC+ streamer, with mixed results.)

Of the smaller premium channels, MGM+ remains a linear/stream hybrid under Amazon ownership, while Starz also programs a linear slate of channels, even as it prefers to focus on its digital platform. But both would prefer you think of them as digital brands, and not traditional TV channels.

And that brings us to HBO. Even under Warner Bros. Discovery, the pay cable provider, has withdrawn its linear offering: earlier this year, the company shuttered multiplex networks including HBO Family, ThrillerMax, MovieMax and OuterMax.

Those cuts came from a company with leadership rooted in the cable industry. Now imagine how much patience Netflix’s Ted Sarandos might have for what’s left in the linear HBO stable. (The answer? Not much.) After all, Sarandos and Netflix have never shown any interest in owning or operating linear properties. Netflix intentionally did not include the channels spun off by the “Discovery” portion of “Warner Bros. Discovery” in its bid. So how long would it tolerate HBO’s programming linearly, rather than forcing its remaining customers to switch to digital?

Right now, HBO linear subscribers still get free access to HBO Max — which was part of HBO Max’s promise when it first launched in 2020. Would Netflix tolerate hybrid linear customers accessing the streamer that way? When it comes to reducing costs in the merger, will Netflix decide that a linear network infrastructure still makes sense, or will it be easy to ditch the spreadsheets and bottom line?

Much like the era of basic cable’s demise, perhaps premium cable’s fate was already sealed anyway. In 2024, HBO averaged just 154,000 primetime viewers — down 7% from the year before, but a huge drop from recent years (including 726,000 in 2017) as viewership continued to migrate to streaming.

Netflix launched its original programming efforts in early 2010 by emulating the HBO model — starting with higher-priced fare like “House of Cards.” It wanted to transcend HBO and eventually became so big that it went from boutique to warehouse. Now Netflix has pushed out the broadcast networks, while HBO remains a high-quality, tailor-made destination, but mainly on HBO Max. Netflix receives a large number of nominations thanks to its enormous output volume, but HBO also dominates thanks to its quality management.

If Netflix Warner Bros. takes over, it will only be a matter of time before premium cable becomes extinct. HBO would be just one brand to add to Netflix’s bulging menu, joining the WWE, the NFL and more. The Netflix versus HBO story has dominated TV discourse for more than a decade, especially in terms of pricing. But now Netflix may not have to do that anymore are HBO isn’t anymore, and it shouldn’t have to beat it; instead, it would simply consume it.