War in the Middle East leads to volatile security perceptions and early signs of demand shifting | News
Mabrian’s latest comparative analysis of security perceptions in key Middle East destinations and outbound demand trends shows that the escalation of conflict in the Middle East is giving rise to early signs of demand diversion in key European and US source markets, against a backdrop of sharply deteriorating security perceptions in the Arabian Gulf and adjacent destinations.
For this analysis, Data Appeal’s Mabrian examines traveler behavior and sentiment, and quarterly trends from the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy and the United States – five key non-regional outbound markets for GCC destinations – as well as for key destinations within the conflict’s sphere of influence, including Egypt, Jordan and Türkiye.
The latest evolution of Mabrian’s Perception of Security Index (PSI) over the past month, through March 4, indicates a pronounced deterioration in traveler security sentiment across all GCC destinations, with varying intensity by country. Egypt, Jordan and Türkiye are also affected, albeit to a lesser extent. These markets – particularly the Arab Gulf states – have made significant efforts in consolidating security as a key reputational pillar over the past decade, achieving consistently high and, in some cases, exceptionally resilient scores.
Overall, the findings highlight the fragility of the perception of security as a strategic reputational asset, given its high sensitivity to geopolitical tensions. Here are the key trends that data reveals:
Acute but varied impacts on GCC destinations: Following the start of military operations in Iran on February 28, PSI scores in GCC markets – especially those geographically close to the conflict and reportedly targeted – recorded the steepest declines. Based on robust benchmarks a month earlier, Bahrain experienced a contraction of -81 points (out of 100), falling to a low of 9.6. Oman recorded a similar decline, losing -56.7 points to reach a low of 24.8/100. Qatar fell -54.9 points and reached a low of 18.4/100. Among them, Bahrain and Oman are experiencing greater difficulties in regaining lost ground, while Qatar – alongside the UAE and Saudi Arabia – is starting to partially absorb and stabilize the shock. Although the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have been negatively affected, they have shown relatively stronger resilience. The UAE recorded a decline of -48.3 points to reach a low of 51.9/100, while Saudi Arabia fell 13.6 points to a low of 85.3/100. Despite these declines, both destinations avoided the sharper contractions observed elsewhere in the region, underscoring a relatively greater robustness of the observed stability.
Contagion effect in neighboring destinations: Egypt, Jordan and Türkiye – even though not directly involved – experience a spillover effect or “contagion effect” that can be attributed to their geographical proximity and their perceived exposure to the conflict’s sphere of influence. Jordan, which stood at 77.6/100 a month ago, lost -30.3 points at its lowest level, although the country is now showing gradual signs of recovery. In contrast, Türkiye’s PSI fell a relatively moderate -25.8 points (from a peak of 83.8/100), but the trajectory does not currently indicate a recovery. Egypt remains the least affected of the three countries, with a contraction of 7.6 points, and is still not showing stable signs of recovery.
Increased sensitivity among US travelers: A common denominator across all destinations analyzed is the pronounced response among US travelers, whose safety perceptions have proven to be more sensitive than those of other major long-haul markets. The PSI among US travelers fell significantly, with Kuwait down -87.3 points, the UAE down -79.2 points, and Saudi Arabia down -17.8 points. Current trend lines indicate limited prospects for near-term recovery in these segments. The trend in Egypt is similar, as this destination also experienced stress in the US market, with a decline of -32.6 points at the lowest level and an unstable recovery path.
As Carlos Cendra, Director of Marketing and Communications at Mabrian, notes: “These destinations have worked diligently to position themselves as stable and safe environments. In fact, our early 2026 forecast showed West Asia gaining market share in international travel demand, with three GCC cities ranking among the top 10 destinations in the world for growth in travel intent in the first half of the year. This sudden trend shift highlights how crucial it is for destinations to keep a close eye on traveler perceptions, with particularly security sentiment – a highly strategic, yet inherently vulnerable and volatile asset.”
“From a long-term destination management perspective, rebuilding trust will become an immediate strategic priority once the conflict subsides, especially as international travel demand is already showing early signs of diversion,” Mabrian’s spokesperson said.
Conflicts in the Middle East are causing an early shift in demand for international travel
Mabrian data intelligence shows that, amid the Middle East conflict and deteriorating security perceptions, three potential travel demand diversion scenarios are emerging in key outbound markets: Britain, Germany, France, Italy and the US.
The first points to a growing tendency to stay closer to home. This trend is particularly evident among German travelers – who prioritize destinations such as Morocco and Greece – alongside Italians, whose interest is shifting to Croatia, the Czech Republic, Norway and Spain. British travelers show a similar pattern, with Malta, Morocco and Montenegro gaining prominence as alternative options.
A second scenario highlights continued strong demand for Asia, largely supported by direct air connections. Interest remains particularly high in destinations such as Japan, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and the Philippines. However, the realization of this demand will largely depend on the extent to which airline tickets on these direct routes remain competitively priced and attractive.
Finally, several long-haul destinations emerge as potential replacements. Among British travellers, South Africa and the Maldives are gaining popularity, while Latin American destinations are attracting the attention of French, Italian, German and American travellers. Peru and Brazil in particular are emerging as ambitious ‘bucket list’ alternatives.
Another striking trend is also emerging within European demand: Egypt remains attractive among German, Italian and French travelers; However, this question remains highly exposed to developments in the conflict in the Middle East. As Cendra explains: “Travel advisories, restrictions affecting connectivity or restrictions on access to key tourist areas can quickly influence travelers’ perceptions and thus their willingness to choose Egypt as a destination.”
As the Mabrian expert highlights: “In times of global uncertainty, relying on data intelligence is essential. Monitoring travel and tourism dynamics – from changing air connections to traveler perceptions and other key indicators – provides destinations with the insight needed to navigate any crisis, guide recovery efforts, make informed decisions and strategically respond to changing demand patterns.”
