Total current home sales reach multi-year high with mortgage interest rates near 6%

Total number of pending home sales

Our HousingWire data tracks many categories every week and we share just a few in these weekly tracker articles. Today I wanted to cover our overall sales data because you can see how sales in recent weeks have been better than in previous years.

In recent years, housing data has typically performed better when mortgage rates are below 6.64% and moving toward 6%. As long as interest rates do not rise above 7% again, we will have a situation we can work with in 2026. This time last year, interest rates peaked, causing that momentum to fade. As you can see below, most of our data lines show that housing demand is highly seasonal. We always monitor how the market reacts to different interest rate levels to gauge what it will take to stimulate or reduce demand.

Weekly ongoing sales

Our weekly pending sales data shows that these homes are going into contract and will most likely be included in the existing home sales report 30-60 days later. The previous two weeks before this week showed more than 15% year-over-year growth, even as the pace of growth is slowing. Our weekly pending sales data differs from our total pending sales because it only takes into account week-to-week data, which can sometimes be volatile.

As the Thanksgiving holiday approaches, some of our weekly data is dramatically affected because people tend to be busy celebrating holidays instead of selling and buying homes.

Weekly open sales for the past week:

• 2025: 58,612
• 2024: 55,862

Buy application data

We tested housing data for 16 weeks in 2025 with mortgage rates below 6.64% and we had nine positive week-over-week results, seven negative results, and 16 consecutive weeks of double-digit year-over-year growth in purchasing apps. Last week was down 2% from the week before, but up 26% year-over-year.

The extreme year-over-year comparisons for purchasing application data are over, so the bar will be much higher to replicate the 20% plus growth data in the future.

Here are the weekly data for 2025 so far:

• 21 positive measurements
• 18 negative measurements
• 6 flat prints
• 42 consecutive weeks of positive year-over-year data
• 29 consecutive weeks of double-digit growth, year after year

Mortgage interest and the 10-year interest rate

In my forecast for 2025 I expected the following margins:

• Mortgage interest between 5.75% and 7.25%
• The 10-year interest rate fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.70%

The 10-year rate has been in a range for about a month now, and we haven’t seen much movement in mortgage rates for a while, even with the crazy headlines we saw last week. For the most part, the ten-year interest rate fluctuates between 4.05% and 4.15%. Mortgage rates started the week at 6.38% and ended the week at 6.34%, according to Mortgage news daily. Polly’s loan freeze data showed interest rates closed the week at 6.38%.

Mortgage spreads

Mortgage spreads were the best story for mortgage rates in 2025. We are again only 0.33% basis points away from normal levels. Remember, mortgage rates wouldn’t have gotten close to 6% if spreads hadn’t improved this year, and we still have some room for improvement next year.

Historically, mortgage spreads have fluctuated between 1.60% and 1.80%. If current spreads were as bad as they were at the 2023 high, mortgage rates would currently be 0.97% higher. Conversely, if spreads were to return to their normal range, mortgage rates would be 0.53% to 0.33% lower than current levels, meaning mortgage rates would be 5.81%-6.01%.

Weekly home inventory data

Housing inventory growth during the peak sales season rose 33% year over year, but the growth rate has cooled to 15.5%. As housing demand picked up slightly and the number of new homes started to decline, the inventory growth rate has fallen by half but continues to rise year over year for a healthier market.

Year-over-year growth has created a much more buyer-friendly market, but we are now in the traditional 2025 seasonal downturn.

• Weekly Inventory Change (November 14 – November 21): Inventory decreased from 839,506 Unpleasant 830,445
• Same week last year (November 15 – November 22): Stock fell from 721,980–719,000

New advertising data

In 2025, new listings data has shown significant improvement as we aim to return to normal levels. A return to normal would mean that the seasonal increase in new listings would result in 80,000 to 100,000 new listings per week within a few months. My forecast for this year predicted that we would reach 80,000 new listings per week for the first time in years. We achieved that a few times, but during the peak seasonal months there was no real growth, and since most sellers are buyers, it was a disappointment. We now see the seasonal decline in this data line.

To give you some perspective, during the years of the housing bubble, the number of new homes crashed between 250,000 and 400,000 per week for years. Here is the new advertising data from the past two years:

• 2025: 53,374
• 2024: 53,218

Price reduction percentage

In an average year, about a third of homes experience price reductions. Homeowners are adjusting their sales prices as inventory levels rise and mortgage rates remain high. With more inventory and higher rates, the price reduction rate data is higher than last year.

For my Price prediction 2025I expected a modest increase in house prices of about 1.77%. The increase in price reductions this year, compared to last year, reinforces my cautious growth forecast for 2025.

Here are the percentages of homes that have seen a price drop over the past two years:

The coming week: Enjoy the short holiday week

Now that the government is back up and running, we can expect several reports this week, including older retail sales figures and durable goods orders. The ADP report now provides a weekly update, which is helpful because BLS job reports will only appear after that Federal Reserve meets in December.

This week we also have a bond auction, speeches from Fed officials, pending home sales, and home price indexes coming in. The bond and stock markets can be quite volatile at times during this short holiday week, so try not to overreact to this week’s market reaction. Next week we will return to normal work and start preparations for 2026. On Monday’s podcast we will discuss all the positive housing developments we saw in 2025 that have prepared us well for next year.