The growth of the home inventory starts to park

Weekly inventory data

As I emphasized in 2025 and 2024, stock growth has been the best story in the housing while we switch from a wild unhealthy housing market to a normal. Some people were surprised by last week’s existing home sales report, which showed that the inventory of existing houses fell slightly. The Nonsense Inventory data usually peaks in the summer, so if we don’t see much growth in that data line, it is not shocking. Our Altos data offers new weekly inventory data that is not linked to a house in a contract, so that we have a real view of what is for sale.

Last week the stock growth of the growth rate of the last week.

• Weekly inventory change (July 18, 25 July): Inventory Rose van 856,751 Unpleasant 860.426
• The same week last year (July 19-26 July): Inventory came from 668,358 Unpleasant 677,246

New frame data

It seems that the peak culture for new offers in 2025 was 23 May, with a total of 83,143 Lists. Although I was happy to achieve my minimum weekly target of 80,000 new offers, I was disappointed that we did not see any weeks with figures between 80,000 and 100,000, which would be typical of a new list period. But I will celebrate the victories as they come, especially because we did not reach this level at all in 2023 or 2024, which were the lowest new list years in American history.

To give you some perspective, during the years of the bubble crash of the house, new entries have been rising between 250,000 and 400,000 a week for many years. Here are the new list data from last week in the past two years:

• 2025: 71,521
• 2024: 68.404

Price percentage

In a typical year, about a third of the house price reductions experience, which emphasizes the dynamic nature of the housing market. Homeowners adjust their selling prices as the stock levels increase and the mortgage interest rate remains increased. With more inventory and higher rates, our price percentage data is higher than last year.

For my 2025 Price forecastI expected a modest rise in house prices by around 1.77%. This suggests that 2025 will probably see negative real house prices again. In 2024 my prediction of an increase of 2.33% turned out to be inaccurate, especially since the rates fell to around 6% and the question in the second half of the year improved. As a result, house prices increased by 4%in 2024.

The rise in price reductions this year compared to last year reinforces my cautious growth for 2025. Here are the percentages of houses that have seen the price reductions in the past two years in the past two years:

Application -Buy data

Last week the data of the purchase applications showed an increase of 3% of 3% and a growth of 22% on an annual basis. Almost everyone in America has confused this data line, so I decided to write an in -depth article about the growth we have seen this year.

The most important point to remember about 2025 is that the increase in the registration request data has occurred, despite the mortgage interest that does not fall from 6.64% to 6%. This rate range is the only one in which the data has improved beyond the typical seasonal demand curve that has been observed in the application data.

Here are the weekly data for 2025:

• 13 Positive lectures
• 10 Negative measurements
• 5 PLAT PRINTS
• 25 straight weeks of positive data on an annual basis
• 12 consecutive weeks of double -digit growth year after year

Weekly pending sale

Our weekly hanging home sales offers a glimpse of week to week in the data; However, this data line can also be influenced by holidays and any shocks in the short term. We have seen some growth here from week to week, and it is still slightly higher than last year.

Weekly pending sales for last week:

• 2025: 70,609
• 2024: 64,765

Total current turnover

The latest total in anticipation of sales data of Altos Offers valuable insights into current trends in the demand for homes. Last year we observed a significant shift when the mortgage interest rate fell from 6.64% to around 6%. The growth on an annual basis that we experience this year is mainly due to a low bar. Remember: Similar data for 2024 will be very low for the existing Home Sales report until November.

Total current turnover:

• 2025: 384, 307
• 2024: 382,429

10-year revenue and mortgage interest

In my forecast of 2025 I expected the following series:

• Mortgage interest between 5.75% and 7.25%
• The return of 10 years fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.70%

Last week was a week of crazy headlines, even with President Trump Visit the renovations by the Federal Reserve With FED chairman Jerome Powell, but did not go through much with mortgage interest. The return of 10 years does not fluctuate too much and the mortgage interest started the week at 6.78% and ended the week at 6.81%. It is a job and the fed week, so prepare for some market movements based on the data and the announcements of the FED.

Mortgage spreads

The improvement of the mortgage spreads in 2025 considerably helped the housing market because the demand could have been worse if the mortgage spreads had not improved. With more speed reductions and a Dovish tone of the FED, the spreads can slowly improve over time. I was looking for an improvement of 0.27% -0.41% in 2025 and worked of an average of 2.54% in 2024. Until now we have not affected that level, but we have come very close.

If the spreads were as bad as at the height of 2023, the mortgage interest would currently be 0.76 % higher. Conversely, if the spreads return to their normal reach, the mortgage interest rate would be 0.54% -0.74% lower than today’s level. Historically, the mortgage spreads varied between 1.60% and 1.80%.

The best levels of normal spreads today would mean the mortgage interest on 6.07% to 6.27%, a remarkable difference.

The coming week: it’s Jobs Week and Fed Week!

There is not much more to add, except that we have a dramatic week for economic news, with four labor reports and the upcoming Federal Reserve Meeting. The recent unemployed claim data has shown improvement, which is an important indicator that closely monitors the Fed.

The most important points from the Jacket Report released on Friday will contain private wage data that focus on employment with the exception of government workers, as well as trends in wage growth. These two factors are important indicators that supervise the Federal Reserve. When it comes to the FED, the language used, as well as the questions and answers in the press, are crucial.