The government shutdown is disrupting housing construction numbers, but relief is in sight as mortgage rates remain stable
The federal government shutdown lasted longer than a week, interrupting data release and likely delaying the closing of some homes.
Mortgage lenders have received guidance from Fannie and Freddie on adjustments they can make to minimize disruption, which will help.
One bright spot is that Bureau of Labor Statistics employees are being recalled to prepare the September inflation report. This data is needed for Social Security cost-of-living adjustments, and as a result the Fed will have one additional data point before its next meeting.
Against this backdrop, the minutes of the latest Fed meeting were released. While some at the September meeting were thinking about weakness in the housing market, my conclusion was that the minutes were a bit more aggressive than expected, underscoring the importance of getting that additional inflation data.
Mortgage rates fell this week, marking a fifth week in their recent range and also five weeks below 6.5% so far in 2025. Mortgage interest were only four weeks lower in 2024 than they are now. Homeowners with higher interest rates who hesitated and missed the refinancing opportunity may want to contact a lender now.
Survey data showed that consumer attitudes toward buying a home were little changed in September. But surprisingly, even as mortgage rates improved this month, consumers were less likely to expect further improvements.
A special one Realtor.com® Research into consumer information sources shows that a majority of Americans are embracing new tools for real estate insights and home-related content, including AI and social media. Still, real estate agents came out on top when respondents were asked about resources that made them “smarter,” resources that were considered accurate, and resources that were worth spending the time on.
Even as temperatures drop, some real estate markets continue to bring the heat, and these are found in the Northeast and Midwest. Interestingly, the New York metropolitan area was the biggest market mover last year, according to the Realtor.com September Hottest Housing Markets report. However, if we dig deeper, major differences within the market emerge. While many New Jersey suburbs are scorching hot, Manhattan and Queens are pretty cool.
Another report from Realtor.com shows that cash sales remain high — nearly 1 in 3 recent home sales — despite a slight decline from a year ago. Cash sales are even more common at the very high and very low ends of the price scale, accounting for the majority of home sales priced below $100,000 and above $2 million.
Weekly housing data showed a modest uptick in interest from new sellers this week, but growth remains lower than earlier this year, prompting more modest growth in active listings at flat prices.
Finally, the best time to buy nationwide has arrived: October 12-18. Buyers can expect less competition, notable price savings and more homes on the market this week than at the start of the year. Along with the national average, 21 of the 50 largest markets are experiencing peak consumption this week.
