Shockwaves from the war in the Middle East are reaching the Caribbean as food prices rise

Highlighting the import-heavy status of many Caribbean islands, UN investigators warned on Wednesday that the war – and in particular the shipping and energy crisis in the Strait of Hormuz – has triggered one of the biggest global trade shocks since the COVID19 pandemic and Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

According to the report, low-income households will be hardest hit analysis in collaboration with the UN World Food Program (WFP), after crude oil prices jumped to more than $114 a barrel earlier this year, along with higher shipping costs, insurance costs and delivery delays.

“Even with a fragile ceasefire in place, volatility remains high – and the Caribbean, which is heavily dependent on imported food, is quickly feeling the pressure”, claim the authors of the report.

At the same time, experts warn that there is a 61 percent chance of the climate phenomenon El Niño that will emerge in mid-2026; Historically, El Niño has brought heat waves, droughts and crop failures to already struggling countries for the Caribbean.

The crisis in brief:

• Fuel shock hits food prices: Skyrocketing oil and transportation costs are driving up the price of imported food, electricity and transportation, putting pressure on family budgets in the Caribbean.
• High dependence on imports: The region is heavily dependent on food imports, making it particularly vulnerable to global price spikes and supply chain chaos.
• Drought fears are increasing: the UN climate agency WMO says there is a 60 percent change from an El Niño weather event this year. A strong El Niño could cause severe dry spells in countries such as Belize, Guyana, Suriname, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago, endangering crops and water supplies.
• Food insecurity already high: Prices have risen 55 to 60 percent since 2018leaving many families struggling, while food insecurity remains well above pre-pandemic levels.
• Back-to-back disasters: Recurring climate disasters, including Hurricane Beryl in 2024 and Hurricane Melissa last October, have left households with few options to cope or withstand new shocks. This means that even small price increases or crop losses can push many households into crisis.

Warning signs

In Belize, authorities are preparing for drought, while farmers in the Caribbean fear shrinking harvests as rainfall decreases and temperatures rise.

For low-income families, the consequences can be devastating, as food and transportation make up a large portion of expenses. This means that even modest price increases will hit hard and force many to cut back on their meals, switch to cheaper, less nutritious foods, or fall into debt.

Small farmers and fishermen are also at risk as they face rising operating costs and worsening weather conditions.

Experts say the coming months will be crucial. Without swift action to stabilize markets, support incomes and protect food production, the region could slide into a deeper crisis.

Even if global conditions improve, the damage could continue, leaving the Caribbean trapped in a cycle of rising prices, climate shocks and increasing food insecurity.