Prices of existing houses rose in September

Total sales of existing homes in September

Total sales of existing homes for September, from NAR:

• An increase of 1.5% existing home sales month-on-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million.
• 4.1% increase in turnover year on year.

Based on our Housing Market Tracker data, we noticed a slight increase in demand year-on-year from the May/June period. It takes approximately 30-60 days for our pending contract data to appear in the existing home sales report. In mid-June I realized that our tracker data was showing a shift in the balance between supply and demand, so it was no surprise when sales grew: we were operating from extremely low sales levels.

Inventory in September

• 1.55 million units: Total housing stock, up 1.3% from August and up 14.0% from September 2024 (1.36 million).
• 4.6 months supply of unsold inventory, unchanged from August and up from 4.2 months in September 2024.

Home inventory appears to have peaked at around 1.55 million in the NAR data, which puts nothing but a smile on my face. My goal for the post-COVID housing market was to reduce the total housing stock to 1.52-1.93 million and achieve at least a four-month supply; that’s a healthy market, and we got it in 2025.

One note here: unlike 2007-2011, even with the third year of lowest home sales on record, if I adjust to our population of the years 2022-2025, the monthly supply data never exceeded 5.0 months, while in the 2007-2011 period they hovered between 8.3 and 10.8 months for the existing home sales market.

House price growth increased for the second month in a row, up 2.1% year-on-year. Two months ago this was 1%, last month it was 2% and in this report prices have only increased slightly to 2.1%. For those reading our weekend tracker, we’ve shown how the balance between supply and demand has changed somewhat since the summer.

Conclusion

It’s not shocking to me that the last four months showed flat 4.1% year-over-year revenue growth. That was my call at the beginning of this year because, unlike last year, the forward-looking housing data was not as negative as in the first half of 2024.

Overall, considering what we’ve faced in housing, 2025 is the healthiest year in the post-COVID housing market. Mortgage spreads are better, mortgage rates are lower, inventories are up, price growth has cooled, and all the things that used to be problems have improved in 2025.