Lower mortgage interest rather pushed the inventory lower in August

Weekly inventory data

In recent years our weekly inventory data generally achieved the highest point in October or November, which is later than in the pre-covide era. Around mid -June, when the mortgage interest rate started to fall, I saw a slight shift in the data. If you had asked me if I expected that the inventory would fall in August, given that the mortgage interest was still at 6.50% and higher, I would have said no. Yet that is exactly what happened.

Currently, inventory growth has fallen on an annual basis from recent highlights from 33%to 22%, despite the mortgage interest that is not yet approaching 6%. If the mortgage interest rate had been to 6% earlier this year, in addition to the level of stock growth we experienced, it would not have surprised me. However, that did not happen. I will continue to follow this situation for the rest of the year.

Last week the inventory only rose a little:

• Weekly inventory change (August 22-August. 29): Inventory fell from 861,238 Unpleasant 860,728
• The same week last year (August 23-August 30): Inventory Rose van 698,161 Unpleasant 704,654

Note: This is a holiday weekend, so the home information will be influenced next week, but last week the data looked normally.

New frame data

The new list data peaked in the week of 23 May this year and reached a total of 83,143 entries. Since then this number has gradually decreased. Initially I was enthusiastic to achieve my goal of 80,000 lists for 2025, something that I incorrectly calculated the previous year. However, we have not seen any consecutive weeks with lists above 80,000 during the seasonal peak period, which was somewhat disappointing. We are now going in the traditional seasonal decline.

To give you some perspective, during the years of the bubble crash of the house, new entries have been rising between 250,000 and 400,000 a week for many years. Here are the new list data from last week in the past two years:

• 2025: 63,761
• 2024: 59,566

Price percentage

In an average year about a third of the house price reductions, which is a common appearance in the housing market. Homeowners often lower their selling prices when the stock levels are rising and the mortgage interest rate remains high. As a result, the percentage of price reductions with more available houses and higher rates is greater than last year. This is another great story for housing in 2025, because in 2025 the housing market became a much friendly market for buyers.

For my 2025 Price forecastI expected a modest rise in house prices by around 1.77%. This suggests that 2025 will probably see negative real prices again. In 2024 my prediction of an increase of 2.33% turned out to be inaccurate, especially since the rates fell to around 6% and the question in the second half of the year improved. As a result, house prices increased by 4%in 2024. The rise in price reductions this year compared to last year reinforces my cautious growth gursing for 2025. This data growth rate has recently been cooled.

Here are the percentages of houses that have seen the price reductions last week in recent years:

10-year revenue and mortgage interest

In my forecast of 2025 I expected the following series:

• Mortgage interest between 5.75% and 7.25%
• The return of 10 years fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.70%

During a week in which many expected interest rates and bond returns rise as a result of the current drama around the potential dismissal of the fed of the Governor Lisa Cook, we actually saw the lowest mortgage interest of the year. This has surprised many people. I discussed this topic in the last episode of the Housingwire Daily Podcast, and even an important inflation report on Friday did not lead to higher rates.

Although the 10-year proceeds did not experience any dramatic fluctuations, the fact that it decreased during the week and remained some surprise below 4.32%. Next week is Jobs Week, so we can anticipate many important data that will influence both the Federal Reserve and the markets.

Mortgage spreads

As always in 2025, we must appreciate the mortgage spreads. This year, favorable prices have largely seen as a result of improvements in mortgage spreads compared to the levels of 2023 and 2024. As long as there are no large market disruptions and the Federal Reserve continues to lower the rates for neutral, this trend must continue.

If the spreads were as bad as at the height of 2023, the mortgage interest would currently be 0.80% higher. Conversely, if the spreads return to their normal reach, the mortgage interest would be 0.50% -070% lower than today’s level. Historically, the mortgage spreads varied between 1.60% and 1.80%.

The best levels of normal spreads would mean the mortgage interest rate at 5.80 %% to 6.00% today, a remarkable difference.

Application -Buy data

We have our first month of testing the housing data with rates of less than 6.64%, which has been the most important level in the past. The information expired with flag and weekly, because we saw four consecutive weeks of positive weekly and year-year data. This usually occurs when the rates fall less than 6.64% and go to 6%. I also wrote about this last week. We saw 2% from week to week of growth and 25% growth on an annual basis. We usually have to see 12-14 weeks of growth from week to week to achieve something material, but it is a good start.

Here are the weekly data for 2025 so far:

• 16 positive lectures
• 11 Negative measurements
• 6 PLAT PRINTS
• 30 consecutive weeks of positive data on an annual basis
• 17 consecutive weeks of double -digit growth year after year

Total current turnover

The latest total hanging sales data from Housing Wire data offer valuable insights into the current trends in the demand for homes. Last year we observed a significant shift when the mortgage interest rate fell from 6.64% to around 6%. Although we have not yet reached 6%, the recent data with higher rates have shown slight growth on an annual basis and that trend has continued.

Total current turnover:

• 2025: 376.916
• 2024: 365,909

Weekly pending sales

Our weekly hanging home sales offers a glimpse of week to week in the data; However, this data line can be influenced by holidays and any shocks in the short term, so expect that next week’s data will get a big hit due to Labor Day weekend. We still show slight growth on an annual basis in this data line. The current sales data are included in the existing Home Sales Report 30-60 days earlier.

Weekly pending sales for last week:

• 2025: 65.701
• 2024: 64,255

The coming week: Jobs Week!

It’s a job week! This is an important one, because it is the last job report before the Federal Reserve Meet in September. The only reason that the Fed cannot lower rates during that meeting is if this week’s job report is impressive.

We have planned four labor reports this week, together with other economic data and statements from Federal Reserve members. The story of Lisa Cook can also take some more turns this week. So, just fixed, people, this week is perhaps one of the wildest weeks so far in 2025.