Do the lower mortgage interest already have a lower home inventory?

For now I believe it is a combination of things: lower mortgage interest, new list data that falls and frustrated home sellers who take their homes off the market, because they don’t get the price they wanted. In any case, one thing is certain: unless the mortgage interest rises again, we have probably already seen the peak growth rate of the inventory in 2025, while we have not yet seen the peak of the inventory.

Weekly inventory data

I was shocked that the inventory fell last week; The inventory has grown consistently in the first week of August in recent years. Now that the mortgage interest rate is lower than 6.64% – is that the main reason? I don’t think so because the growth rate of the stock has been delaying since the last two weeks of June. After waiting for the two weeks of July 4 to work out of the system, things remained in the slow growth, but a decrease?

Yet the best story for housing in 2024 and 2025 was the stock growth and growth price that cools. The stock growth rate was about 33% recently and last week it fell to 24%. If the mortgage interest rate is higher, we can see an increase in active lists that are comparable to what we saw in 2023 when the rates reached 8%, but for now the stock growth story has recently been delayed.

Last week the inventory fell compared to the last week.

• Weekly stock change (August 1, August): The inventory fell from 865,620 Unpleasant 859.096
• The same week last year (August 2, August 9): Inventory came from 683,738 Unpleasant 692.833

New frame data

The new data data reached its peak during the week of 23 May, a total of 83,143 entries. It is encouraging that we have achieved my minimum weekly target of 80,000 new offers, although I would have liked to have seen a few weeks with figures between 80,000 and 100,000. As the seasonal decrease in the lists has begun, we do not want to display negative data on an annual basis in new offers.

However, this week we had a negative print on an annual basis. Although this would usually express my concern, we had an unusual peak in this week last year, so I would not emphasize this specific data point, at least for this week. In the future, I don’t have a good explanation if we see negative new offers of the year apart from the fact that some sellers stop before 2025.

To give you some perspective, during the years of the bubble crash of the house, new entries have been rising between 250,000 and 400,000 a week for many years. Here are the new list data from last week in the past two years:

• 2025: 66.372
• 2024: 75,373

Price percentage

In an average year, about a third of the houses see price reductions, which is a regular part of the housing market. Homeowners often lower their selling prices when the stock levels are rising and the mortgage interest rate remains high. As a result, the percentage of price reductions with more available houses and higher rates is greater than last year.

For my 2025 Price forecastI expected a modest rise in house prices by around 1.77%. This suggests that 2025 will probably see negative real house prices again. In 2024 my prediction of an increase of 2.33% turned out to be inaccurate, especially since the rates fell to around 6% and the question in the second half of the year improved. As a result, house prices increased by 4%in 2024.

The rise in price reductions this year compared to last year reinforces my cautious growth stock game

Here are the percentages of houses that have seen the price reductions in the past two years in the past two years:

10-year revenue and mortgage interest and spreads

In my forecast of 2025 I expected the following series:

• Mortgage interest between 5.75% and 7.25%
• The 10-year yield fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.70%

It’s all about the mortgage spreads this week. The mortgage interest rate reaches their lowest levels for the year, but for the most part, the 10-year return bounced off an important technical level that kept many times, and the return of 10 years rose steadily throughout the week. However, we have not seen much damage to the mortgage interest rate.

This week I wrote about mortgage spreads and talked about it with editor of Chief Sarah Wheeler on the Housingwire Daily Podcast also.

Mortgage interest did not admit much. They started the week at 6.57%and became as low as 6.55%and then went back to 6.57%. The return of 10 years this week, which would usually increase the mortgage interest rate, but because the mortgage spreads were good, not much happened with rates. One thing to remember about mortgage spreads, we still have some room to go lower to become normal again, because the graph below shows the history of the mortgage spreads.

Application -Buy data

Last week the details of the purchase applications showed a growth of 2% of 2% and an annual basis of 18% on an annual basis. The increase in new lists on an annual basis can help explain the growth of data on an annual basis for purchase apps. Now that the mortgage interest rate is lower than 6.64%, if they continue to fall, we must see better data from week to week, as we have seen in the past. It will be interesting to see the details of the purchase apps following. However, the demand for housing will be better when the rates are almost 6%, about which I have written here.

Here are the weekly data for 2025:

• 14 Positive lectures
• 11 Negative measurements
• 5 PLAT PRINTS
• 27 Right weeks of positive data on an annual basis
• 14 consecutive weeks of double -digit growth year after year

Total current turnover

The latest total hanging sales data from Housing Wire data offer valuable insights into the current trends in the demand for homes. Last year we observed a significant shift when the mortgage interest rate fell from 6.64% to around 6%. Now that the mortgage interest rate is 6.57%, it will be interesting to see what happens to the data if we can get the rates with duration to 6%.

Total current turnover:

• 2025: 374.025
• 2024: 367,324

Weekly pending sale

Our weekly hanging home sales offers a glimpse of week to week in the data; However, this data line can also be influenced by holidays and any shocks in the short term. Last week we saw a decrease from week to week in this data line. Although we are in the seasonal decline, it will be interesting to see what this looks like when the rates are almost 6%.

For the most part, this data line has been positive on an annual basis since June. These current contracts usually fall out in sales data for 30-60 days. Remember that the compositions are on an annual basis in the home sales at historically low levels.

Weekly pending sales for last week:

• 2025: 66.347
• 2024: 70,896

The coming week: inflation week, nourished speeches and retail sales

This week the most important focus is on how the bond market reacts to inflation. We enter a phase in which the markets, economic data and the Federal Reserve will be in an impasse, just like the scene in “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly”, which every waiting for the other makes a movement. Last week, during labor reports, the bond market saw a decrease in the proceeds. Now inflation is in the spotlight. In addition, there will be speeches of FED officials and retail sales data released on Friday. As always, we keep an eye on the data of the unemployed claims.

If the unemployed claims start to break much higher, the FED will be forced to lower the rates more aggressively because they would admit that they were too old and respond slowly to the labor data. For now, the initial unemployed claim data is still historically low.