Big-Box Boom: The clues that indicate your community is about to grow
When a major big box retailer opens its doors in a community, it’s usually more than just a new place to shop: it’s a signal. These chains follow rising consumer demand, so their arrival often signals population growth, new housing construction and a housing market on the rise.
“Big-box retailers typically target markets that are already experiencing population growth and are expected to continue growing,” says Hannah Jonessenior economic research analyst at Realtor.com®.
“In this sense, new large-scale retail openings can enhance growth by making the area more attractive to potential buyers. Expanded retail amenities can help attract and retain residents, which in turn supports housing demand and potentially property values.”
Real estate agent and investor in Florida Ron Myers by Ron buys houses in Florida agrees, telling Realtor.com, “When big box stores move in, it gives buyers confidence. It tells them the area isn’t slowing down, it’s growing.”
Home furnishings stores are a good sign
New major home improvement stores in particular tend to join a sizable and stable base of homeowners.
“Their presence suggests there are sufficient homes for sale to support demand for renovation, maintenance and upgrade projects,” says Jones. “In growing suburban markets, this could reflect both new construction activity and an established population investing in their homes.”
In one recent earnings callHome Depot EVP and CFO Richard McPhail revealed that the retailer plans to open approximately 15 stores by 2026.
He also said 12 stores would be added by 2025, with one opening in the World Commerce Center of St. Augustine, Florida.
The average sales price there is $468,500, and homebuyers are finding an ever-increasing selection of homes.
“The area is experiencing a surge of new construction and planned communities, with easy access to I-95,” Myers said. “There is still stable demand.”
A bull’s-eye for homeowners
Goal is doubling the number of physical stores, with plans to open more than 30 locations across the country by 2026.
This should be welcome news for property owners in the area, as homes in the same zip code as a Target store experienced about a 27% increase in sales price appreciation, according to a 2015 study.
Last year, Target chose the Prasada area of Surprise, AZ, as one of its new store locations, landing in a city with a booming real estate market.
Johannes Gluchfounder of the Gluch Group at eXp Realty in Arizona, Realtor.com tells us, “People are tired of Scottsdale/Gilbert prices and are realizing they can get a brand new 3,000-square-foot home in Prasada South for the price of a 40-year-old fixer-upper in Tempe.”
The average sales price in Surprise is $439,950, compared to $1,100,000 in Scottsdale, $600,000 in Gilbert and $497,000 in Tempe.
Gluch points to the wave of new stores like Target as a big draw. “Buyers love that everything is clean, planned and literally five minutes away,” he says. “If you’re a family or a lock-and-leave traveler, it’s hard to beat the price-to-lifestyle ratio we have here.”
Big box, big wins
BJ’s Wholesale Club expands its footprint with eight new locations scheduled for 2026 – one of which is headed to Forney, Texas, a booming suburb 20 miles east of Dallas that is quickly becoming one of the region’s hottest growth corridors.
Real estate agent Evan Downey by eXp Real Estate tells Realtor.com that Forney’s growth in retail “makes everyday life easier for residents, but also increases buyer confidence and helps support home values over time.”
He says Forney is one of the few areas near Dallas where buyers can still get a newer home at a more accessible price.
The average listing price in Forney is $335,000, compared to $405,000 in Dallas-Fort Worth.
Forney stands out among Dallas suburbs, he says, because buyers can get more homes for less money. And the wave of major retailers locating here — including BJ’s, Home Depot, Target and HEB — suggests the area has reached critical mass.
“That’s usually a sign that the area’s population has reached the level where large companies have confidence in long-term investment,” says Downey.
