A look at each NCAA men’s basketball tournament matchup

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PHOENIX – Following four play-in games, the NCAA men’s basketball tournament gets underway in earnest on Thursday, with 16 games on the schedule. Here’s a look at every team’s strengths and weaknesses, and why their first-round opponent may or may not be a good matchup.

March Madness bracket if you picked each matchup by which School spends more money on their basketball team. (non-NIL)
In collaboration with @NCAABuzzerBters pic.twitter.com/Pd2DpjUso1

— Cronkite News: Phoenix Sports (@sportscronkite) March 18, 2026

EAST REGION

No. 1 Duke vs No. 16 Siena

Duke: Siena will have its hands full in this one. Duke is the second biggest team in the NCAA field. Duke is the only team in the nation in the top four nationally in both defensive and offensive efficiency.

Siena: The Siena Saints rank 20th in points allowed per game (65.7) and 50th in defensive efficiency but even with these rankings, we’re looking at a true David and Goliath matchup.

No. 8 Ohio State vs No. 9 TCU

Ohio State: After hovering around the bubble, the Buckeyes put together an impressive stretch of four straight wins, beating Purdue, Indiana and Iowa. They are led by the dynamic backcourt of Bruce Thornton (20.2 PPG) and John Mobley Jr. (15.8 PPG).

TCU: The Buckeyes struggle on the defensive glass. They ranked 285th in the nation at 33.2 per game. Offensive rebounding is a strength for TCU (57th, 12.4), making for an even matchup.

No. 5 St. Johns vs No. 12 Northern Iowa

St. Johns: One of the most physical teams in the country, St. Johns smothers opponents, blocks shots and outrebounds its opponents. Look for Rick Pitino’s squad to play with tons of effort.

Northern Iowa: The Panthers lead the nation in fewest points allowed per game (62.1) and are No. 3 in defensive 3-point percentage (28.5). On the other end, the Panthers struggle to score (69.9 PPG), as they did during their five-game losing streak in January.

No. 4 Kansas vs No. 13 Cal Baptist

Kansas: The Jayhawks are just 6-8 this season against teams that rank in the top-110 for defensive rebounding rate, and 2-7 against teams in the top 50 for 2-point percentage. Look for Kansas to still halt an upset, as it ranks 24th in average size, while Cal Baptist ranks 312th.

Cal Baptist: There might be trouble for the Jayhawks, as the Lancers rank 45th in defensive rebounding rate and 34th in 2-point percentage. Still, with Cal Baptist owning KenPom’s No. 205 strength of schedule, it might be a long day for the Lancers.

No. 6 Louisville vs No. 11 South Florida

Louisville: Look for a ton of threes on the Cardinals end as they are eighth nationally in 3-point attempts per game with 32.3. The Cardinals are 13-0 when they shoot at least 39% from deep and 10-10 when failing to do so.

South Florida: With Louisville star Mikel Brown potentially missing this game, it opens the door for South Florida. Louisville shoots 37.2% from 3-point range when Brown played and 32.7% when he did not. As for the Bulls, they are 13-0 when keeping their opponents under 30% from deep.

No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 14 North Dakota State

Michigan St: Tom Izzo’s squad is one of the more deadly mid-range teams in the country. The Spartans are 20-0 when shooting over 50% on 2-pointers and 5-7 when failing to do so.

North Dakota St: The Bison broke a school record for wins at 27-7. This team has a deep rotation with six players averaging nine or more points per game. They outscored opponents by 11.1 points per game.

No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 UCF

UCLA: The Bruins have turned things around in the past month. After a controversial postgame presser in East Lansing, Mick Cronin’s squad has defeated Illinois and Michigan St., making UCLA a true wild card to make some noise. The Bruins are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country at a 38.2% clip.

UCF: The Knights are a huge surprise this year, as they were projected to finish as one of the worst Big 12 teams. Still, this team has struggled down the stretch, shooting just 9 for 61 (14.8%) from 3-point range over its last three games. This is a recipe for success for UCLA, as the Bruins are 15-0 when limiting opponents to under 30.5% from beyond the arc.

No. 2 UConn vs. No. 15 Furman

UConn: After starting 22-1, the Huskies have lost four of their past 11 games. Over this stretch, they are forcing fewer turnovers and giving up 5.9% higher shooting at the rim. Look for the Huskies to get back on track against Furman. They are 29-0 when shooting over 16% from 3-point range with an offensive rebounding rate over 21%.

Furman: The Paladins do not own a single KenPom top-150 win this season. A major strength is Furman connecting on 37.2% of its 3-pointers in wins, but with blowout losses against top-150 teams, it’s looking grim for the Paladins.

SOUTH REGION

No. 1 Florida vs. No. 16 Prairie View A&M

Florida: The defending champs have found their groove after a slow start. Reuben Chinyelu is the nation’s best rebounder (11.5 RPG), while guards Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland have hit their stride.

Prairie View A&M: The Panthers are a well-traveled team, as they played 10 road or neutral site games in November and December. They’re led by Dontae Horne (20.3 PPG), but we’re still looking at a long day against the defending champs.

No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 9 Iowa

Clemson: The Tigers lost all five starters from last year but quickly reloaded as they rank 31st nationally in Division I experience. Clemson had the second-best mark in the ACC in points allowed per game. The Tigers like to control the tempo.

Iowa: The Hawkeyes are back in the Big Dance with a stout defense and elite shooting. They allow their opponents to average 66 points per game and are shooting 49.1% from the field as a whole.

No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 McNeese

Vanderbilt: This team thrives on electric offense, as the Commodores rank 10th nationally in efficiency. They aren’t afraid to push the pace and avoid turnovers while doing it.

McNeese: Larry Johnson does a little bit of everything for this team, averaging 17.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG and 1.2 steals. The Cowboys are 22nd in scoring defense but rank 111th in 3-point percentage.

No. 4 Nebraska vs. No. 13 Troy

Nebraska: The Cornhuskers look to win their first March Madness game in program history. After starting the season 20-0, Nebraska has gone 6-6 down the stretch with 15-plus point losses to UCLA and Purdue. The Cornhuskers average about 30 threes per game, making them a dangerous team when they connect on offense.

Troy: The Trojans have a balanced attack on offense. They have four players scoring at least 12 points per game and average 15.2 assists per game.

No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 VCU

North Carolina: The Tar Heels are very beatable without a healthy Caleb Wilson drawing a lot of attention. When the projected lottery pick was on the floor, North Carolina outscored opponents by 16.6 per 100 possessions. This shrank to 7.6 points per 100 possessions when Wilson wasn’t playing.

VCU: The Atlantic 10 champs are one of college basketball’s most efficient offenses with depth, 3-point accuracy and the ability to get to the foul line at a top-15 rate.

No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 Penn

Illinois: This team is tall. Illinois has an average height of 6-foot-8, making it the tallest team in the country. Coach Brad Underwood’s squad features a lethal lineup as five different players are scoring in double figures.

Penn: The Quakers have revived coach Fran McCaffrey’s career. Led by forward TJ Power who is coming off of 44 points and 14 rebounds in the title game, this won’t be an easy matchup for Illinois.

No. 7 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 10 Texas A&M

Saint Mary’s: Get ready for a game in delightful contrast between the two schools. Saint Mary’s ranks 11th in 3-point percentage (38.86), first in free-throw percentage (80.5) and 11th in offensive rebound rate, but do it at an extremely slow pace as they are ranked 297th in that category.

Texas A&M: The Aggies do things a lot differently. First year Aggies coach Bucky McMillan has his team running an up-tempo and aggressive style. The Aggies rank 29th nationally in tempo, which shows the massive difference between the two teams.

No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Idaho

Houston: Kelvin Sampson’s team is still as tough as ever. The Cougars rank second in points allowed per game (62.9) and 16th in field goal percentage allowed (40.0). Houston has had seven Final Four trips with no championship, so will this finally be the year?

Idaho: Four players on the Vandals average more than 10 PPG. While they have a balanced attack on offense, the defense is middle-of-the-road as they give up 72.9 PPG.

WEST REGION

No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 LIU

Arizona: The Big 12 champs come into the tournament riding high, after defeating Iowa State and Houston. Arizona has one of the most prolific offenses (86.1 points per game) with all five starters averaging double digits. The Wildcats also have one of the best rebound margins (10.8) to go with it.

LIU: This is a nightmare matchup for the sharks. LIU allows a ton of 2-points attempts, which is something on which Arizona thrives. On the other hand, they rank 51st in the nation for defensive field goal percentage, allowing opponents to shoot 41.8% .

No. 8 Villanova vs. No. 9 Utah State

Villanova: This year’s Wildcat team has a lot to prove, as they are 1-6 against the KenPom top 50. When Villanova avoids giveaways they are 17-2 when keeping their turnover rate to 15.8% or lower.

Utah State: The Aggies are 13-0 when attempting over 63% of shots inside the arc, instead of relying on the three. On defense, the Aggies rank 16th in turnover rate forced and feature plenty of problems for Villanova as Mason Falslev and Drake Allen are top-100 in individual steal rates.

No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 High Point

Wisconsin: The Badgers are sixth in attempted threes and boast a 21-2 record when shooting over 33.3% from beyond the arc. A big component to beating the Badgers is forcing turnovers, as they are ninth in turnovers per game.

High Point: The Panthers can hang around in this game, as they rank fourth nationally in turnover rate forced.

No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 13 Hawaii

Arkansas: The Razorbacks rank 311th on 3-point attempt rate but Coach Calipari’s team is 14-0 when shooting at least 58% on 2-pointers.

Hawaii: The Rainbow Warriors allow the 15th lowest 3-point attempt rate and rank 22nd in 2- point percent defense. Strength of schedule plays a role in defensive efficiency, but Hawaii’s offense is the problem as they are 300th or worse in turnover percentage and 3-point percentage.

No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 Texas

BYU: AJ Dybantsa (25.3 PPG) is a certified superstar, with a great compliment from Robert Wright III, but with Richie Saunders out for the season, it will be hard for this Cougars team to go far.

Texas: If the Longhorns’ offense is on, they can beat almost anyone in the country, but the defensive efficiency remains an issue. They are the only team in the tournament with a top-10 offense, but a defensive efficiency ranking outside of the top 100.

No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 Kennesaw State

Gonzaga: As most Mark Few teams do, Gonzaga is one of the best teams in terms of attacking and finishing inside the arc as they are 17th in 2-point percentage.

Kennesaw State: The Owls are a dangerous 14-seed making their second NCAA Tournament appearance in school history. Led by coach Antoine Pettway, they play a high-tempo, aggressive style, averaging 80.5 points per game and ranking second nationally in free throws attempted (27).

No. 7 Miami vs. No. 10 Missouri

Miami: The Hurricanes have a major advantage in rebounding, as they are 29th in offensive rebound rate, while Missouri ranks 214th in defensive rebounding rate.

Missouri: The Tigers come into the Big Dance with wins over Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and Tennessee. Forcing turnovers is a key component in a lot of these wins, as Missouri is 16-2 when creating at least 14 points off of turnovers.

No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 15 Queens

Purdue: The Boilermakers are red hot coming into the tournament, winning four games in four days to win the Big Ten Tournament. The defense has taken a big step forward in those wins, as opponents shot just 33.7% from 3-point range.

Queens: The Royals rank 35th nationally in 3-point attempt rate and hit 35.9% of them, which is 68th in the country. The flip side doesn’t bode well for Queens as it ranks 322nd in adjusted defense and do not rank top-200 in a single major defensive stat.

MIDWEST REGION

No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 Howard

Michigan: Led by the frontcourt of Yaxel Lenderborg, Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mora, the Wolverines are poised for a deep run. Michigan has 24 wins this year by 10 or more points but a weakness is turning the ball over for this squad.

Howard: Kenny Blakeney won a national championship at Duke in 1992, and jumped into the coaching world following his graduation in 1995. He spent nearly 25 years as an assistant at James Madison, Delaware, Seton Hall, Marshall, Harvard and Columbia, before receiving the head coaching gig at Howard in 2019. Even with the experience, we’re looking at a long day for the Bison.

No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 9 Saint Louis

Georgia: Forcing turnovers will be vital for the Bulldogs, as they average turning 14.7 turnovers into 21.2 points in wins but only 11.0 turnovers into 11.6 points in losses.

Saint Louis: After starting 24-1, the Billikens have faltered over the stretch, finishing 4-4. Center Robbie Avila, will look to turn things around for Saint Louis as it ranks top 15 in 2P% AND 3P%.

No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 12 Akron

Texas Tech: The Red Raiders are going to have to get it done without their star JT Toppin (21.8 points, 10.8 rebounds per game) as he suffered a torn ACL in mid-February. It’s unclear which Texas Tech team will show up, as they have lost three straight to TCU, BYU and Iowa State.

Akron: The Zips come in with one of the most explosive offenses in the country under coach John Groce, as he’s reached the tournament three straight years. Akron ranks seventh in scoring at 88.6 points per game and does it efficiently. The Zips are ranked eighth nationally in effective field goal percentage (58.5%).

No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 Hofstra

Alabama: Always count on a lot of scoring with a Nate Oats led team, as the Crimson Tide average a country-best 91.7 points per game. Alabama is led by sophomore guard Labaron Philon Jr. (21.7 PPG), but will more than likely be without second-leading scorer Aden Holloway, as he was recently arrested for a felony drug possession charge.

Hofstra: Holloway’s potential absence opens the door for Speedy Claxton’s squad. This year, Hofstra’s opposing field goal percentage is a stifling 38.7%, which is fourth in the country.

No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 Miami (OH)

Tennessee: Rick Barnes’ focus on defense has the Volunteers sitting at 15th in overall adjusted efficiency. As for opponents shooting, Tennessee is 15-1 when opponents shoot under 48.5% on 2-point attempts.

Miami (OH): The red hot Redhawks come in with a 32-1 record. One of the most polarizing teams in the nation gets it done beyond the arc, sliding into the top 25 in 3-point percentage.

No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 14 Wright State

Virginia: The Cavaliers’ elite defense has been matched with a revamped offense under first-year coach Ryan Odom. Virginia averages 80-plus points per game and are led by defensive big man Ugonna Onyenso, who had 21 blocks in three ACC tournament games, including nine against Duke.

Wright State: The Raiders are back in the dance for the first time since 2022. Wright State isn’t a super high scoring team, but it boasts a top-25 field goal percentage (49.12) and poses problems on defense, as it set a school record 148 blocks this year.

No. 7 Kentucky vs. No.10 Santa Clara

Kentucky: The Wildcats have struggled at times with their $22 million roster throughout the season. Kentucky is excellent at shutting down at-the rim attempts but does allow efficiency overall, coming in at No. 104 in this category.

Santa Clara: There may not be a Steve Nash on this year’s Santa Clara team, but the Broncos have major size and talent up and down the roster. Santa Clara attempts a lot of 3-pointers, collects a lot of offensive rebounds and forces turnovers with its aggressive, full-court defense.

No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Tennessee State

Iowa State: The Cyclones rank fifth in turnover rate forced and ninth in steal rate, leading to points the other way. The biggest hole is Iowa State struggling to protect the glass against bigger teams like St Johns and Purdue but Tennessee State should be no problem.
Tennessee State: Tennessee State ranks 90th nationally in offensive rebound percentage and has reached 31% in 23 of 32 games. This will by far be the toughest matchup, as Iowa State is the second-best defensive rebounding percentage team Tennessee State has faced.