Smart investors follow flight paths to find the next real estate boom
Real estate investors have long used population growth to identify future peaks in housing demand. But in an increasingly mobile economy, airport traffic can reveal whether a market is primed for greater, more sustainable growth.
A new analysis of Zonda Chief Economist Ali Wolf compares metro population to airport passenger boarding to identify places where air traffic punches above its weight.
“I was thinking about the wave of migration during the pandemic and wanted to better understand which markets are likely to see continued growth,” says Wolf. Realtor.com®. “I started by looking at job growth and affordability, two key factors that help keep a market attractive over time. But I also wanted to consider connectivity.”
Her premise is deceptively simple: connectivity is a direct measure of how easily people, employers, customers and capital can move through a market. And where capital can move easily, demand for housing will follow.
By comparing population to the number of boarding passengers, Wolf identified places where the airport is busier than locals alone would suggest – indicating growth potential that traditional housing data may miss.
Why flight patterns matter for the housing market – and the key markets to watch
If you’re skeptical about whether flight patterns have anything to do with housing demand, consider the difference between living in a place with easy, frequent flights and a place where every trip requires a layover, a long drive, or an expensive connection.
For frequent travelers, such as retirees visiting grandchildren, remote workers traveling to locations quarterly, or business owners with clients across the country, that proximity can determine whether a market is a realistic place to locate or not.
In Wolf’s words, “A person may move to a place he really enjoys, but if he can’t easily visit his grandchildren or stay in touch with old friends, that location quickly becomes less attractive.”
Wolf is careful not to view airport access as a magic formula for finding the next boomtown. Instead, she says, it’s an additional signal that investors and homebuyers can use to understand whether a market is connected to broader economic and migration networks.
“Comparing airport size to population rank does not replace traditional measures of housing demand, but it does add an important layer of insight,” she explains. “Airport plans show which metros are deeply embedded in national and global networks, and which remain more locally oriented.”
But the mismatch itself is just the starting point; the more important question is what drives it.
Tourist magnets stimulate the demand for second homes and STR
The discrepancy between Honolulu, Las Vegas and Orlando is driven by tourism and business travel, Wolf says.
“For these markets, housing demand is often tied to service sector employment, second homes and investor activity, rather than traditional family formation,” she says.
That makes them particularly attractive areas for this type of investment. Indeed, Realtor.com Investor data shows that dynamics are already visible in some of these markets.
For example, Las Vegas had one of the highest shares of investor buyers among the 50 largest metros in the second quarter of 2025, with investors accounting for 16.8% of home purchases – up 3.9 percentage points from a year earlier.
Nevada also ranks among the top states for investor activity, with investors purchasing 15.4% of homes statewide.
But that doesn’t mean airport traffic alone is driving this trend. In the investor report, Realtor.com senior economist says Hannah Jones notes that investors are also responding to declining demand, rising inventories and softer prices in Las Vegas – suggesting that connectivity may be part of a broader investment thesis, not the whole story.
Regional hubs support sustainable growth
Denver and Salt Lake City tell a different story, according to Wolf.
“While Denver and Salt Lake City also benefit from tourism, the size of their airports is more closely tied to geography,” she says. “Both serve as central connecting points for large regions of the country, allowing airlines to consolidate traffic and provide broad connectivity from one location.”
That kind of connectivity can give a market a longer-term advantage by making the region more accessible to employers, employees, business travelers and relocating households.
Denver is a useful example. After the pandemic, local officials put a plan in place ambitious recovery plan aimed at reviving economic activity to great success – it was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the pandemic-era migration patterns of people and businesses.
Recently, however, home prices there have fallen faster than in many other major metropolitan areas as migration patterns slowed and inventories increased. Today, the city ranks as one of the weaker major housing markets in the country.
But Wolf’s analysis offers a strong counterpoint, suggesting that a short-term reset in the housing market will not erase the Mile High City’s structural advantage. It may be oversupplied or temporarily out of favor, but it still has the kind of infrastructure that will support long-term demand.
Airport headquarters support high-income job growth and buyer demand
Cities with large hub airports also stand out in Wolf’s analysis. These airports are economic engines in their own right, employing tens of thousands of people and supporting business travel, logistics, corporate operations and regional growth.
It is exactly the kind of activity that can create a demand for housing that is not clearly reflected in a city’s population ranking alone.
North Carolina’s Charlotte Douglas International Airport is a strong example. It ranks as one of the busiest airports (ranked 11th) in the country, even though metro Charlotte ranks much lower on the population list (ranked 21st in the top 30).
Much of that traffic comes from connections (i.e. people who never enter Charlotte’s housing market), as American Airlines uses Charlotte as a major hub. But these passengers still reflect the extent of the airport’s role in the region.
Despite its modest population, Charlotte has the kind of national connectivity that could, over time, make it more attractive to employers and relocating households — earning it the title of hidden gem.
Investors may already be responding to some of these signals. Realtor.com’s Institutional Investor Report shows that from 2015 to 2025, Charlotte had one of the highest shares of institutional investors among major metros, at 4.2% of single-family home purchases.
Dallas shows another version of the same pattern.
The outperformance is due to a powerful system with two airports. Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport is already one of the largest in the country, while Dallas Love Field adds another important layer of air service. The two airports acted together approximately 51 million passengers in 2025, strengthening the region’s role as one of the country’s most connected business and logistics hubs.
This economic footprint is also reflected in the housing market. Dallas-Fort Worth ranked No. 1 nationally in institutional investor purchasing volume from 2015 to 2025, with more than 65,000 institutional purchases, according to data from Realtor.com. In the second quarter of 2025, investors accounted for 16.1% of home purchases in the metro, above the national buyer share of 10.8%.
The overlap provides further evidence as to why the airport signal is worth watching. In some of the country’s most connected growth markets, infrastructure, population growth, rental demand and investor interest are all pointing in the same direction.
