Lower rates and rising deals are reaching a pivotal point for spring buyers

The housing market is finally showing signs of the seasonal vitality we’ve been waiting for.

After persistently rising through much of March, mortgage rates reversed in April and fell to 6.23% this week, the lowest level in five weeks. Meanwhile, the number of homes for sale is increasing.

This shift comes at a crucial time for the housing market. I see this convergence of lower financing costs and rising inventories as a potential catalyst for a market looking to find its footing.

We are currently in the most active window of the real estate calendar. Although we have technically passed the national Best Time to Sell (typically mid-April), conditions remain remarkably favorable for homeowners looking to put a home on the market. This is especially true in the Sun Belt, where a dozen markets are currently peaking or will reach optimal selling conditions within weeks.

Our latest weekly data shows that sellers are re-engaging with confidence. New listings have effectively recovered from the typical spring slump and are well above the sluggish pace we saw at the start of the year.

While this hasn’t yet translated into a huge glut of active listings, the modest increase we’re seeing provides some much-needed breathing space for buyers who have run out of options.

Interestingly, we see a nuanced tug-of-war between pricing and speed. As asking prices begin to soften, the time on the market gap is actually disappearing. This suggests that despite the price adjustments, the housing market is moving rapidly, possibly mirroring last year’s lively seasonal peak.

However, the national story only tells half the story. To understand your specific position, you need to look at the local ‘time’. Our new Realtor.com Market Clock highlights significant fragmentation:

• The South: Leading the way with a relative abundance of inventory, making it easier for buyers and sellers to reach an agreement.

• The Northeast and Midwest: We are seeing a more varied pace of contract signings as supplies remain tighter.

• The West: Faced with a more pronounced slowdown in signing contracts as affordability remains a key obstacle.

This week we also pulled back the curtain on a secondary market that directly impacts future housing supply: land. Our very first land price estimates reveal a stark reality.

The supply of land has shrunk significantly and remains well below pre-pandemic levels – a much larger shortage than we see in the housing market. This scarcity has kept land prices high, even as the broader housing market shows some weakening.

At the top end of the spectrum, our luxury outlook for 2026 suggests a period of ‘normalisation’. The luxury sector continues to claim a larger share of total supply and sales, but price growth is stabilizing.

We expect ‘paradises with many amenities’ to be the standouts this year. A good example is Hailey, ID, a “pure luxury” market that exemplifies the trend of affluent buyers seeking lifestyle-driven locations over traditional urban centers.

Whether you’re navigating Idaho’s luxury landscape or looking for a starter home in the Sun Belt, the data suggests a market that’s becoming more balanced, albeit highly localized. As rates stabilize and inventory increases, the chances of a successful transaction increase for those who stay informed.

For complete reports, the Market Clock and raw housing data, visit realtor.com/research.