Why does the women’s NCAA Tournament feature so few upsets?

PHOENIX – March Madness has long been known for its chaos. Whether it’s buzzer beaters, Cinderella runs or bracket-busting upsets, the last two weeks of the month are often brimming with bedlam.

But while the NCAA men’s basketball tournament has a history of unpredictability, the women’s tournament is quite the opposite. 

Since expanding to 64 teams in 1994, seeds 14 through 16 in the women’s tournament have gone a combined 1-360, with the lone win coming in 1998 when No. 16 seed Harvard stunned Stanford, the top seed. By contrast, the men’s tournament routinely produces double-digit seed upsets every year. 

Several factors contribute to the lack of upsets in the women’s bracket, but a major difference lies in how the early rounds are hosted. In the women’s tournament, higher seeds often host games on their home floors, making for a significant advantage.  This home-court advantage creates a more controlled environment, where top teams benefit from familiar settings, supportive crowds and reduced travel fatigue. 

In the men’s tournament, games are played at a neutral site, creating unpredictability and leveling the playing field. 

Talent distribution is another major factor for the lack of upsets on the women’s side. Elite schools such as UConn, Tennessee and South Carolina have constantly attracted top recruits in large numbers, creating a wider gap between top seeds and lower-seeded teams. Various factors lead to the same schools receiving top recruits such as better training resources, national exposure, likelihood of winning a championship and eventually becoming the top player at a powerhouse by staying for several years. 

NCAA data shows No. 1 seeds hold a dominant 475-101 record since the tournament expanded in 1994, with 23 national championships to show for it. Dating back to the start of the tournament in 1982, No. 1 seeds have won 33 out of 43 championships. Meanwhile, seeds 14 and 15 have never won a game in the women’s field. 

By contrast, men’s college basketball features greater parity. Teams seeded No. 15 and 16 have pulled off historic upsets in recent years, according to NCAA men’s tournament records. Fans still marvel at No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson’s upset of top-seeded Purdue in 2023, and who can forget No. 15 Princeton stunning second-seeded Arizona the same year?

Analysts attribute this to a deeper talent pool in the men’s field and the increasing “one and done” process that leads to male players leaving for the NBA after a single season with their schools. This constant turnover prevents long-term dynasties and redistributes talent more evenly across programs.

Financial disparity also plays a role. Women’s programs are constantly underfunded compared to their male counterparts, even in the midst of winning.

Reports indicate some schools fund men’s programs at up to three times the level of women’s teams. This gap affects various factors such as facilities, coaching resources and player development, leaving a smaller women’s program with next to no resources. 

As a result, women’s teams often lack the infrastructure needed to compete with elite programs. 

However, the landscape is beginning to shift with the introduction of Name, Image and Likeness opportunities. The NCAA’s “Now Era” campaign highlights how NIL and increased scholarship investments (now totaling over $4 billion annually) are creating more opportunities for athletes across all sports. 

NIL deals may help distribute talent more evenly in women’s basketball by allowing players to consider factors beyond traditional powerhouse programs when choosing schools. But even with NIL, the current competitive gap still remains evident.

Betting lines offer a clear example of this for tournament games. Top-seeded UConn opened as a 54.5-point favorite against No. 16 University of Texas at San Antonio on the women’s side, while the biggest gap in the men’s field is a 30.5-point spread for No. 1-seed Arizona versus No. 16 Long Island. 

Media exposure and growth trends may also influence potential in the future. Women’s sports have seen a surge in popularity, driven by star players and increased coverage. As investment and interest grow, so too could the depth of talent across more programs, potentially leading to more parity in the future.

Ultimately, the lack of upsets in the women’s tournament is not due to a single cause, but instead a variety of factors over several years. But change is underway. With NIL opportunities expanding funding improving and the sport gaining momentum, the gap may begin to close. 

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