The home inventory actually fell last week. What’s going on?

In the two weeks prior to the holiday week of 4 July, our weekly housing market tracker showed that housing details stabilized as the mortgage interest approached their lowest levels of the year. However, with July 4 on a Friday, I noticed that the next two weeks would probably disrupt our weekly data, and that turned out to be the case. That said, I expect that things will return normally again next week. Let’s look at the current housing data.

Weekly inventory data

The most promising aspect of the housing market in 2025 is the increase in the inventory and the delaying growth rate of house prices National. After a few years after the COVID-19 Pandemie, this year seems to reflect an almost perfect balance. Although the inventory decreased last week, this decrease was mainly due to the impact of the two weeks around the holidays. The last week, however, showed stronger growth than the usual trend. We can expect a return to normality from next week.

• Weekly inventory change (July 4,-11-juli): Inventory fell from 853,180 Unpleasant 846,833
• The same week last year (July 5, 12-juli): Inventory Rose van 645.713 Unpleasant 652.518

New frame data

The new data data seems to have reached its peak for 2025. Although we have achieved my minimum target of 80,000 new entries per week this year during the seasonal peak period, I had hoped that I had seen at least a few weeks of activity between 80,000 and 100,000. Nevertheless, reaching the target is still a victory for 2025. This datarine experienced an important dip last week, but I expect that it will be back next week.

To give you some perspective, during the years of the bubble crash of the house, new entries have been rising between 250,000 and 400,000 a week for many years. Here are the new list data from last week in the past two years:

• 2025: 60.726
• 2024: 56,622

Price percentage

In a typical year, about a third of the house price reductions experience, which emphasizes the dynamic nature of the housing market. Homeowners adjust their selling prices as the stock levels increase and the mortgage interest rate remains increased. We saw some stabilization in this data line before the holiday week of July 4, and we will see what is happening now that the holiday data of two weeks have been lifted.

For my 2025 Price forecastI expected a modest rise in house prices by around 1.77%. This suggests that 2025 will probably see negative real house prices again. In 2024 my prediction of an increase of 2.33% turned out to be inaccurate, especially since the rates fell to around 6% and the question in the second half of the year improved. As a result, house prices increased by 4%in 2024.

The rise in price reductions this year compared to last year reinforces my cautious growth roor spelling for 2025. The price-cut percentage looks completely healthy in a rising stock environment where affordability is a problem I love the housing market of 2025.

Here are the percentages of houses that saw price reductions last week in the past two years:

Application -Buy data

The details of the purchase applications showed 25% growth on an annual basis last week, with a growth from 9% from week to week. I have written a whole article about what I think is going on here, and This recently Housingwire Daily Podcast explains why we had the best growth of year-on-year growth in 2025.

Here are the weekly data for 2025:

• 12 positive lectures
• 9 Negative measurements
• 5 PLAT PRINTS

Here are the data on an annual basis for the past 23 weeks

• 23 straight weeks of positive data on an annual basis
• 10 consecutive weeks of double digits growth on an annual basis

Weekly pending sales

Our weekly hanging home sales offers a glimpse of week to week in the data; However, this data line can also be influenced by holidays and any shocks in the short term. Nevertheless, the data from last week showed growth in our weekly pending sale, but the data from week to week, just like other weekly datarins, took the traditional holiday dive of July 4. We have to go back to a more normal trend next week.

Weekly pending the sale for last week in the past two years:

• 2025: 61.143
• 2024: 58.321

Total current turnover

The last weekly information about total pending sale of Altos Offers valuable insights into current trends in the demand for homes. Mortgage interest is usually approximately 6% necessary for considerable growth on the housing market. Even with increased rates, we still experience growth on an annual basis.

Weekly pending sales for the past week for the previous year:

• 2025: 387.590
• 2024: 381.517

10-year proceeds and mortgage interest

In my forecast of 2025 I expected the following series:

• Mortgage interest between 5.75% and 7.25%
• The 10-year yield fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.70%

We didn’t have much economic data last week. Yet we had a number of crazy headlines – from Fed President Waller who spoke about lowering the rates to go faster to President Trump to President Trump who brought more new rates for countries before the deadline of August 1 – so the obligatory returns had some action. We had a mini-eightway with the return of 10 years: it started at 4.32%, cost to 4.43%, dropped back to 4.32%and then finished the week at 4.41%. The mortgage interest did not give much at all, starting the week at 6.79% and ending the week at 6.82%.
Again, Mortgage is spreading this year better acting, limits the damage at the front when the return of 10 years rises.

Mortgage spreads

The mortgage spreads have been raised since 2022, but have improved since their peak in 2023. We experienced some drama with the spreads in April, because the markets treated the rates, but things have improved as the market has calmed down. During the weekend and last week Trump announced New tariff percentages about countries prior to the deadline of 1 August, so we will see how the stock market responds to this. The spreads that recently calm down have contributed to the stability on the mortgage market.

If the spreads were as bad as at the height of 2023, the mortgage interest would currently be 0.76% higher. Conversely, if the spreads return to their normal reach, the mortgage interest would be 0.74% -0.54% lower than today’s level. Historically, mortgage spreads usually varied between 1.60% and 1.80%.

The coming week: inflation week, rate newspapers, shop sales and homes start

We have a lot of data this week: it is the inflation week and one of the FED presidents said last week that the Fed believes that they will see the inflation of the rates affect the reports of June and continue the rest of the year. And who knows which tariff heads we get? We also have retail sales to follow consumer activities and the most important unemployed claim data, which have fallen in recent weeks.

We also have a few house data lines that are always the key to the economic cycle: the reliability data of builders and starts start. We will have a multitude of economic reports to work with this week.