41% of US homes for sale are being reduced in price as Black Friday approaches
Nearly 41.2% of active listings for single-family homes include price reductions. The average discount is 4%, which equates to approximately $17,230 off the typical list price of $427,900.
Homes spend an average of 77 days on the market and 10.2% of homes are relisted – a sign that deals are falling through or sellers are testing lower prices.
In most metropolitan areas, the typical discount is between $10,000 and $25,000.
Where discounts are deep – and superficial
Austin ranks high with 52.5% of listings marked down, with an average discount of $22,236.
In Pittsburgh, 47.2% of listed homes saw cuts, with an average downgrade of $13,346, while New Orleans recorded a 40.5% downgrade rate with an average downgrade of $13,361.
Indianapolis has the highest markdown rate in the country at 56.3%, which contradicts assumptions about the stability of the bargain market.
More affordable markets are mixed. St. Louis has a relatively low reduction rate of 39.9%, but Louisville, Kentucky and Indianapolis do not follow this trend.
What awaits us for 2026?
The next three months – a period that typically sees lower buyer traffic – is expected to bring more price cuts.
HousingWire Data’s 12-week trend analysis shows stable markdown activity, consistent markdown size and inventory swings between 2.2 and 2.9 months at the current sales pace.
Based on these patterns, three likely scenarios are presented:
Base case: probability 60%
• Price reduction percentages: 42% to 44%
• Median size of cut: 4.2% to 4.5%
• Typical cuts, in dollars: $18,000 to $20,000
• Market days: 80 to 85
Winter delay scenario – 25% probability
• Price reduction percentages: 45% to 48%
• Median size of incision: 4.5% to 5%
• Typical cuts, in dollars: $20,000 to $25,000
• Market days: 85 to 95
Market Acceleration Scenario: 15% Probability
• Price reduction percentages: 38% to 40%
• Median size of cut: 3.5% to 4.0%
• Typical cuts, in dollars; $15,000 to $18,000
• Market days: 70 to 75
Metro Outlook
High-pressure markets are expected to remain under pressure on discounts:
• Austin: reduction rate from 54% to 57%; typical cuts from $23,000 to $26,000
• Indianapolis: reduction from 57% to 60%; cuts from $14,000 to $16,000
• Denver: reduction rate from 54% to 56%; cuts from $25,000 to $28,000
More resilient markets may see stable or improving conditions:
• Springfield, Missouri: reduction from 25% to 28%; cuts from $12,000 to $14,000
• San Jose: reduction from 26% to 29%; cuts from $85,000 to $95,000
• New York City: reduction rate from 29% to 32%; cuts from $38,000 to $42,000
Seasonal factors – which typically cause a 15 to 20% increase in price reductions – play their usual role.
Inventories remain tight at 2.7 months, interest rates keep buyers picky and regional economic conditions continue to vary.
Still, most sellers retain enough equity to lower prices again if necessary.
