Why requesting mortgage purchase has been positive throughout the year
We work from a record low bar
In the past two years my theme has been: the bar for purchase apps is so low that we can stumble over it. Millions of people also buy houses every year – regardless of what happens in the economy. Despite the fact that significant challenges are confronted in the housing crisis of 2008, the COVID-19 Pandemie and now trade tensions, millions of people continue to enter the housing market.
With more than 162 million Americans employed and record-drill sales levels, the relocation of the needle does not take much. As we observe in the information below, this trend is clearly in the history of housing sales: when the mortgage interest rises, demand decreases. Over time we draw up a new low basic line and ultimately the sale tends again.
The mortgage interest rate decreased this year versus last year
Last year, the mortgage interest rate rose from 6.63% to 7.50% before they fell to 6%. This increase resulted in 18 consecutive weeks of negative trends in purchase requests. During this period there were 14 weeks with negative data from week to week, two weeks with positive data, two weeks with flat data and no annual growth.
This year the return of 10 years on January 14 peaked and has since remained below that peak level. Consequently, the mortgage interest rates decreased instead of increasing at the start of the year. With these lower rates from a low basis, we have experienced 14 consecutive weeks of positive growth sizes on an annual basis.
According to the MBA data diagram for purchase application below, there are positive data on an annual basis for 2025 and a positive growth on an annual basis registered in 2025. These results are not too poor, even with a mortgage interest rate of 7%. Imagine what the year would have looked like if the mortgage interest had just risen between 6% and 6.64%. In recent years, that level have seen the home data improve.
Conclusion
What surprises me about the growth of the purchasing applications this year is that it happens at a mortgage level that has not yielded no growth on an annual basis in this data line for years. Remember that every year we see wage growth, household formations, marriages that lead to double incomes and creating millions of jobs. If the mortgage interest were closer to 6%, the demand for housing would probably have been stronger and the growth would be less surprising to me.
Remember that purchasing application details are a trend investigation and that the data today has risen year after year 13% does not mean that existing home sales will rise by 13%. This data line looks from 30-90 days, and as long as the year after year grows, it is a positive story about housing.
Given this data in context, we can continue to see a small revenue growth this year. However, if the mortgage interest rate would fall to 6% or lower, the demand curve would have been better. In general, the current situation is not bad, especially in view of the significant headwind, negative headlines and generally discouraging sentiment that we encountered in 2025. With the inventory and price growth cools down, the housing story of 2025 is positive for the future of the home.
