The sale of houses remains surprisingly positive, even with higher rates

Application -Buy data

Given the recent increase in mortgage interest, I expected a greater decrease in both the data from week to week and year-on-year. Surprisingly, the fall from week to week was only 5%, especially less than my expectations. Moreover, growth on an annual basis has improved, risen from 10% to 13%. This can probably be attributed to the low basic line that we are currently working with.

I expected this trend if the mortgage interest ran from 6.64% to 6%, not being raised as they have. The monthly purchase reduction of the new home sales market also shows 14% growth from month to month and a 5.5% growth on an annual basis.

Here are the weekly data for 2025:

• 7 Positive Lectures
• 4 Negative measurements
• 3 PLAT PRINTS

Double digit on an annual basis growth in purchasing requests was not in my cards, unless the mortgage interest rated from 6.64% to 6%. This is why the data line surprised me, especially this week, more than every week this year. Last year, when mortgage interest rates from 6.63% to 7.50%, we had 14 negative prints, 2 flat and 2 positive prints with zero-year-on-year growth weeks.

Weekly total pending sale

The last weekly total current contract details of Altos Offers valuable insights into current trends in the demand for homes. Usually a mortgage interest rate is needed to get closer to 6% trends to get real growth in the data lines of the housing demand, but we recently collected some of the weekly sales data, and now our total pending sales data is positive year after year. In the coming weeks we will have more challenging compositions on our weekly sales data.

Weekly current contracts for the past week in recent years:

• 2025: 391,488
• 2024: 384,614
• 2023: 335.017

10-year revenue and mortgage interest

In my forecast of 2025 I expected the following series:

• The mortgage interest is between 5.75% and 7.25%
• The return of 10 years will fluctuate between 3.80% and 4.70%

Last week, promising developments presented for the 10-year return and mortgage interest. In the light of concern about potential debt issues and a bond market it lost, I kept an optimistic prospect. In the absence of significant escalation headlines, I foresee that the return of 10 years should stabilize around 4.35%.

This optimistic prediction was validated because the 10-year revenue consistently floated around this level during the week, coinciding with a fall in mortgage interest. In general, the combination of falling revenues and falling mortgage interest rates indicates a less stressful bond market, which I see as a positive trend of previous weeks.

Powell’s Hawkish Speech Last week, which led to a decrease in bond returns, impressed me. The fact that bond returns returned on Thursday in the direction of 4.33%, shows a well -functioning obligatory market, something we needed to see.

Mortgage spreads

Mortgage spreads exploded higher after the bank crisis in Silicon Valley made things worse in 2023. However, the mortgage spreads started to improve in 2024. At the beginning of this year, this positive trend went in the right direction, but unfortunately the recent market volatility has broadened the spread.

It is understandable to feel worried, especially in view of the fact that if spreads were just as unfavorable as in 2023, we could have to deal with mortgage interest almost 8%. This situation would have made it incredibly difficult for anyone who wants to buy a house or sell and buy a house. If the mortgage spreads were normal again, we would talk about mortgage interest almost 6%.

Historically, mortgage spreads must vary between 1.60%-1.80%.

Weekly inventory data

The best housing story for me about 2024 and 2025 – the growth of the inventory! Getting the country back to the 2019 level will be a more balanced housing market, and in fact all my low home inventory will disappear. This week we again made more progress in the direction of that goal.

• Weekly inventory change (April 11, 18 April): Inventory Rose van 702.434 Unpleasant 719,400
• The same week last year (April 12, 19): Inventory came from 526,479 Unpleasant 542,651
• The soil of all time was in 2022 240,497
• The stock peak before 2024 was 739,434
• For some context were active lists for the same week in 2015 1,060,699

New frame data

The new list data for the past two years have not been a positive story, but that’s it now. Last year I expected that at least 80,000 houses would be mentioned every week during the seasonal months, and I was wrong – with 5,000. This year I am optimistic that we would go back to that brand. It is remarkable that around 70% to 80% of home sellers and buyers enter the market, which reflects a constructive trend while striving for a more balanced market.

Although this week has presented a slight delay in the growth of new offers, we are steadily approaching the seasonal peak and I am convinced that we will exceed more than 80,000 lists per week this year.

To give you perspective, during the years of the bubble crash of the house, new entries have been rising between 250,000 and 400,000 a week for many years. The growth in new list data only tries to be normal again, with the seasonal peaks vary between 80,000 and 110,000 a week. The national new list data for last week in recent years:

• 2025: 77.004
• 2024: 68.409
• 2023: 59,269

Price percentage

In a typical year, about a third of the houses experience a price reduction that reflects the ever -changing nature of the housing market. As the stock levels rise together with higher mortgage interest rates, some homeowners experience an increase in price adjustments.

For the rest of 2025 I confidently project a modest increase in house prices by around 1.77%. At the same time, this suggests another year of negative growth in price prices – the current availability of houses and increased mortgage interest again this prospect. A significant shift in the mortgage interest to around 6% could change this process. My 2024 prediction of 2.33% turned out to be wrong, because lower rates made my prediction too low in 2024.

The increase in price reduction this year compared to the latter reinforces my conviction that my conservative growth price forecast for 2025 is solid and well supported. Below are the price reductions of previous weeks in recent years:

• 2025: 35.5%
• 2024: 32%
• 2023: 30%

In the coming week: will the headlines the economic data of Trump?

This week various Federal Reserve presidents will speak, which will probably generate considerable media attention. In addition, with Trump that shows interest in replacing Powell, that story can get a grip. I will delve further into this subject in the Monday episode of the Podcast Housingwire Daily.

This week we will also see reports about new and existing home sales, and because our weekly data is slightly ahead of these figures, I expect a fall from month to month in existing home sales. Moreover, we have PMI reports together with the data from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday, who recently shown some challenges. It will be interesting to see how these indicators develop.

View the entire archive of our weekly housing market tracker -articles here.