The labor market still keeps mortgage interest rates increased

10-year revenue and mortgage interest

In my forecast of 2025 I expected the following series:

• The mortgage interest is between 5.75% and 7.25%
• The return of 10 years will fluctuate between 3.80% and 4.70%

Two jobs on Friday ago I discussed that if the Godzilla rates were not part of the comparison, the return of 10 years would have to act at 4.35%. Consumption in the economy still lasts and activates the work that I should see to talk more about a recession that has not yet happened. After another job week that shows that the labor market is not yet breaking, the fact that the return of 10 is almost 4.35% is not a shock for me.

Now the question is what the economy will look like in a few months. This is why President Trump is talking about wanting lower rates. Even he knows that we can see economic disruptions with the trade war, especially without deals. Last week on Thursday and Friday we saw the economic data exceeded than estimates, which increased the return of 10 years from 4.14% to 4.31%, making the mortgage interest higher.

Mortgage spreads

The mortgage spreads have been raised since 2022, but have improved since their peak in 2023. However, the recent market volatility has made the spreads worse since the lows that we saw earlier this year.

If the spreads were as bad as at the height of 2023, the mortgage interest would currently be 0.56 % higher. Conversely, if the spreads return to their normal reach, the mortgage interest rate would be 0.94% to 1.14% lower than today’s level. That would mean the mortgage interest of less than 6 % today.

Historically, mortgage spreads must vary between 1.60%-1.80%.

Application -Buy data

Since 5 February, the data application data has demonstrated 13 consecutive weeks of positive growth on an annual basis. This is especially remarkable, since it happened at the end of April, even with the mortgage interest of more than 6.64% for the majority of the year.

Moreover, despite a recent increase of more than 50 basic points in mortgage interest, the persistence of positive growth on an annual basis is impressive. However, the growth rate for purchasing applications is considerably delayed and is approaching a flat or potentially negative growth year after year. We will observe the upcoming data delivery to determine whether this positive line will take place. The graph below illustrates that it has been a favorable year on an annual basis for buying application data.

Here are the weekly data for 2025:

• 7 Positive Lectures
• 6 Negative measurements
• 3 PLAT PRINTS

Total current turnover

The last weekly total current contract details of Altos Offers valuable insights into current trends in the demand for homes. Usually a mortgage interest rate is needed to get closer to 6% trends to get a real growth in housing. The data has shown good progress with increased rates. Last week, awaiting housing sales of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) did show a large beat of estimates and our weekly data is usually for the NAR reports. Higher rates have recently cooled the details of the purchase application; The growth rate is cooling. To keep the demand so good with increased rates, it simply appears that if we can only come to 6% and stay there, we can grow the sale, which has been my theme since the beginning of 2023.

Weekly pending the sale of the past week in recent years:

• 2025: 402,366
• 2024: 397,305
• 2023: 368,490

Weekly inventory data

The most encouraging development on the housing market for 2024 and 2025 is the increase in the inventory – it is essential for the housing market to work more effectively in the long term. We have had a solid back back in stock growth from the Easter holidays.

• Weekly inventory change (25 April 3 May): Inventory Rose van 728,755 Unpleasant 744,225
• The same week last year (April 26-May): Inventory Rose van 556,291 Unpleasant 559,961
• The soil of all time was in 2022 240,497
• The stock peak before 2025 is 744,225
• For some context were active lists for the same week in 2015 1,081,867

New frame data

Another positive story for 2025 is that data from new lists are growing and I am very close to obtaining my minimum call of 80,000 during the top season period. We have a nice snap here from the Easter holidays.

To give you perspective, during the years of the bubble crash of the house, new entries have been rising between 250,000 and 400,000 a week for many years. The growth we see in new list data only tries to become normal again, whereby the seasonal peaks vary between 80,000 and 110,000 a week. The national new list data for last week in recent years:

• 2025: 78.078
• 2024: 70.943
• 2023: 57,862

Price percentage

In a typical year, about a third of the houses undergo price reductions, which emphasizes the dynamic nature of the housing market. As the stock levels rise and mortgage interest rates increase, many homeowners make adjustments to their selling prices.

In my price forecast of 2025 I expected a modest rise in house prices by around 1.77%. This means another year of a negative real house price forecast for 2025. What can make my prediction wrong is a decrease in mortgage interest rate to almost 6%, which can make my prediction too low again. In 2024 my price forecast of 2.33% was incorrect because it was too low, and I lost it when the mortgage interest rate went to 6%.

The rise in price reduction this year compared to the last reinforces the validity of my conservative growth gaming for 2025. Below is a summary of the price reductions of previous weeks in recent years:

• 2025: 36.5%
• 2024: 33%
• 2023: 29%

The coming week: global PMI, bond auctions and fed speeches

This week we get the global PMI data and bond auctions. On Friday, various FED presidents will speak and offer valuable insights. This is an exciting time because they bring each unique perspectives on managing the trade war, informed by the feedback they receive from companies in their respective districts. We also have unemployed claim data on Thursday, which showed a large peak last week with regard to two states.

We will also see whether the details of the purchase application can continue his 13 -week winning series of positive data on an annual basis. This was the most surprising data rule for me in 2025, because the mortgage interest rate has remained increased.