Lower mortgage interest stimulate sales in early spring

• 4 Positive lectures
• 3 Negative measurements
• 3 PLAT PRINTS

In general, we have seen a positive growth year after year with the most weekly data in 2025. It is not spectacular and it once works from the lowest bar, but growth is growth. The details of the purchase application pay attention for about 30 to 90 days, but I would not say that the question is robust. However, if the mortgage interest rate goes to 6% and stay there for a while, I think everyone would probably adjust their sales forecast – including ours, which is currently 4.2 million. That would be my optimistic take for 2025 with lower mortgage interest.

Weekly pending sale

The last weekly current contract details of Altos Offers valuable insights into current trends in the demand for homes. Usually a mortgage interest rate is needed to get closer to 6% trends to get real growth in the data lines of the housing demand, but we have recently seen the weekly data with a number of increased rates higher than 6.64%. If I shorten the duration, this will already show small growth on an annual basis. Our weekly current contracts remain somewhat negative, but they have recently improved, as shown below.

Weekly current contracts for last week in recent years:

• 2025: 346.533
• 2024: 356.618
• 2023: 327,933

10-year revenue and mortgage interest

In my forecast of 2025 I expect the following series:

• The mortgage interest is between 5.75% and 7.25%
• The return of 10 years will fluctuate between 3.80% and 4.70%

After another busy week full of intriguing headlines, the FED meeting and some softer economic data, we are at a crucial point with mortgage interest and the return of 10 years. Last week the 10-year return tested another critical level, bounced it and closed around 4.25%.

As we have discussed earlier, the level of 4.15% to 4.18% will be a strong barrier to break below. In the future we will probably have to see softer economic indicators, in particular with regard to labor data, because the weakness of work will receive the attention of the FED and the bond market.

Mortgage spreads

The current housing market would differ considerably if the mortgage spreads were not improved from 2024. These spreads usually vary between 1.60% and 1.80%. If we were still dealing with the difficult mortgage spreads from 2023, the mortgage interest would be 0.71% higher than now.

Conversely, if the spreads were similar to what we observed in normal times, our current mortgage interest can be reduced by around 0.79% to 0.89%. Imagine – if those spreads are normal again, we can see the mortgage interest below 6% today.

Looking ahead to the rest of this year, I expect a modest decrease in the mortgage spreads, around 0.27% to 0.41%, which worked on the average of 2.54% that we saw in 2024. We can be reached almost a few times this year, but are not there yet.

Weekly inventory data

Spring is here, and with that comes the promise of renewed active mentions – it’s time for our annual storage boost! The most uplifting aspect of the housing market in 2024 has observed the active inventory that makes steps to a more balanced level. Although it has not yet reached my goal of the 2019 stock levels, the progress we have seen is remarkable. Last week was another good week for inventory.

• Weekly inventory change (March 14, March 21): Inventory Rose van 655,626 Unpleasant 668,155
• The same week last year (March 15, March 22): Inventory came from 507,160 Unpleasant 512.759
• The soil of all time was in 2022 240,497
• The stock peak before 2024 was 739,434
• For some context were active lists for the same week in 2015 985,411

New frame data

Although the growth of new list data was delayed last week, this year this year is clearer than 2023 and 2024. Reflective at last year, I really believed that we would reach at least 80,000 on at least in the top season weeks, and although I missed that level with only 5,000, it was still a touch. After a rocky start of the year, it feels like we are finally getting closer to that elusive 80,000 minimum.

To give you some perspective, during the years of the bubble crash of the house, new entries have been rising between 250,000 and 400,000 a week for many years. The growth in new list data only tries to be normal again, with the seasonal peaks vary between 80,000 and 110,000 a week.

The national new list data for last week in recent years:

• 2025: 69.701
• 2024: 60.328
• 2023: 49,993

Price percentage

In an average year, about a third of all houses see a price reduction, which emphasizes the natural fluctuations of the housing market. As the stock levels rise and the mortgage interest rate remains increased, it is remarkable that the percentage of houses with price reductions has risen compared to the times when the rates were lower.

For the rest of 2025 I expect a modest increase in house prices by around 1.77%. This means another year of negative growth of the own home prize for me. Given the current availability of houses and increased mortgage interest, these prospects are reasonable unless we see a fall in mortgage interest rate to around 6%. This shift in the mortgage interest in 2024 was impeded by the 2.33% prediction last year, because it became too low.

The percentage of price reductions this year is higher than the previous one, which means I believe that I have a better chance of being right with my low growth price forecast in 2025.

The coming week: inflation, new home sales, awaiting housing sales, fed speeches and more

There are a lot of data on the Horizon this week and we all know that every heading war can shake the markets about the trade war! While we are closer to Trump Liberation day On April 2, the anticipation will build up around what the government will do on the rate policy. The upcoming speeches of various Federal reserve presidents will shed some light on the current drama and market sentences. Also don’t forget that unemployed claims will be released this week. We saw a slight increase in unemployed claims as the graph below shows.

Moreover, we will have new home sales this week and, awaiting the sales data of the home that come to us, could offer valuable insights into the housing market with two national house price index reports. Let’s see what else unfolds – keep an eye on it!