Lower mortgage interest is the demand for homes

Application -Buy data

The mortgage interest rate reaches their lowest point of the year last week, and it makes a big difference in the most important home data line of Purchase apps. Last year we saw the mortgage interest rise rising from 6.63% to around 7.50%, which led to challenges in the purchase application data. For 18 weeks in a row, the trends were usually not in our favor, with 14 weeks that week after week a decrease of the week showed. We only had two weeks with positive results and two that were flat. Moreover, there was no growth on an annual basis.

2025 has been very different. Here are the weekly data for 2025:

• 6 positive lectures
• 3 Negative measurements
• 3 PLAT PRINTS

In general, we have noted that the growth on an annual basis in most of the weekly purchase apps data for 2025 is encouraged. Last week we had an increase of 9% on an annual basis. This positive trend has taken place despite the mortgage interest that until recently remains above 6.64%. Traditionally, when the mortgage interest rate falls under this threshold, we have seen data improve further than typical seasonal patterns as long as it goes to 6%.

Weekly total pending sale

The last weekly total current contract details of Altos Offers valuable insights into current trends in the demand for homes. Usually a mortgage interest rate is needed to get closer to 6% trends to get real growth in the data lines of the housing demand, but we have recently seen some pick-up on the weekly sales data and now our total current sales data is positive year after year.

Weekly current contracts for the past week in recent years:

• 2025: 367,776
• 2024: 363,834
• 2023: 335.017

For both purchase apps and awaiting sales, the data present an interesting trend: the positive weekly figures we have observed coincide with mortgage interest that exceeds my growing temple. I usually notice this pattern when the mortgage interest rate drops from 6.64% to 6%. We recently fell shortly under 6.64%.

The most important collection meals is that if the mortgage interest rate can remain trend to 6% and this duration can maintain, we can expect an increase in existing home sales this year. This is a point that I could not tackle in the last two years, because I had previously noticed that monthly sales data had reached a peak. As we can see, the prospects for 2025 seem to be different.

10-year revenue and mortgage interest

In my forecast of 2025 I expect the following series:

• The mortgage interest is between 5.75% and 7.25%
• The return of 10 years will fluctuate between 3.80% and 4.70%

I want to keep this simple. Without the recent rate developments, the return of 10 years would not have fallen below 4% or my low prediction of 3.80% would be approached in 2025. During the Traday trade last week we observed a low of approximately 3.87%. Consequently, the mortgage interest rate has reached a low to date and the market experiences remarkable volatility, largely due to concern about the possible long -term effects of these rates on the economy.

If the rates were not introduced, the return of 10 years would probably be around 4.35% and the mortgage interest would be around 6.75%, in particular given the positive labor reports that we received last week. I discuss the job report and the different data that have been received here.
I also tried to understand the new tariff plan This episode From the Daily Podcast of the Woningwire. All heads about rates can significantly increase shares and bond returns, because this would be positively observed for the economy. Stay alert to breaking news.

Mortgage spreads

The mortgage spreads began to show positive trends in 2024 and continued until last week. With a background of market volatility, the spreads got worse last week. Despite the less favorable spreads, we have reached a year-to-date low in mortgage interest. If we had experienced more typical spreads, we could have around 5.75% today, which would be a remarkable milestone after many years. If the mortgage spreads were as bad as the worst levels in 2023, the mortgage interest today would be around 7.25%.

Weekly inventory data

Spring stands for us, and for me the most mandatory story in the home before 2024 and 2025 has been the stock growth. Although we have not yet returned to normal levels, I appreciate our progress. Witnessing a solid week of stock growth brings a smile to my face.

• Weekly inventory change (28 March-4 April): Inventory Rose van 675.558 Unpleasant 691,197
• The same week last year (March 29-5): The inventory fell from 517,355 Unpleasant 512,930
• The soil of all time was in 2022 240,497
• The stock peak before 2024 was 739,434
• For some context were active lists for the same week in 2015 1,021,567

New frame data

The new entries are today a bright spot on the housing market. Last year I estimate that at least 80,000 houses would be mentioned every week during the seasonal months, and my prediction was only eliminated by 5,000. This year we will achieve that goal: 70% to 80% of home sellers are also buyers and this shift reflects a positive trend when we work on a more balanced market.

To give you some perspective, during the years of the bubble crash of the house, new entries have been rising between 250,000 and 400,000 a week for many years. The growth in new list data that we are now seeing is just trying to get normal again, where the season peaks vary between 80,000 and 110,000 a week. The national new list data for last week in recent years:

• 2025: 71,775
• 2024: 54,769
• 2023: 55.008

Price percentage

In a typical year, about a third of all houses experience a price reduction that reflects the inherent fluctuations of the housing market. Given the current increase in stock levels and relatively high mortgage interest, the proportion of houses that see price adjustments has increased compared to the times of lower rates. This trend emphasizes the developing dynamics in the market.

For the rest of 2025 I confidently project a modest increase in house prices by around 1.77%. At the same time, this suggests another year of negative growth in price prices – the current availability of houses and increased mortgage interest again this prospect. A significant shift in the mortgage interest to around 6% could change this process. My 2024 prediction of 2.33% turned out to be wrong, because lower rates made my prediction too low in 2024.

The higher percentage of price reduction this year then last strengthens, my conviction reinforces that my conservative growth price forecast for 2025 is well substantiated. Price reductions for last week in recent years:

• 2025: 35%
• 2024: 32%
• 2023: 30%

The coming week: nothing matters until markets are calm down

This week is crucial for CPI and PPI inflation data, and we must follow the speeches of closely Federal Reserve Presidents in keeping these indicators. In times of chaos, however, the market movements of bonds can become extreme. Until the situation stabilizes, this data has a limited impact. Recently, during the Jacket Week, the bond returns fell considerably, not because of labor data, but because of the prevailing market conditions. That is why our attention must restore the stability of the markets this week, in particular the credit markets.