Increased mortgage interest rate do not discourage home buyers

Application -Buy data

In a total shocker for 2025-this no broadcasting time receives purchase data from last week 20% growth on an annual basis and a growth from week to week of 10%. People have no idea what to make of this data line in 2025, so most ignore it about it. I wrote this article last week to give some perspective, but last week was one of the best weeks in years.

Here are the weekly data for 2025:

• 11 Positive Lectures
• 8 Negative measurements
• 3 PLAT PRINTS
• 19 consecutive weeks of positive data on an annual basis

Weekly pending sale

Our weekly hanging home sales offers a glimpse of week to week in the data; However, this data line can also be influenced by holiday weekends and any shocks in the short term. Last week’s data were a bit soft, probably because of the holiday weekend, but we saw a jump back in sales and we still show growth on an annual basis with mortgage interest almost 7%.

Weekly pending sales for last week in the past two years:

• 2025: 72.039
• 2024: 68,916

Total current turnover

The last weekly information about total pending sale of Altos Offers valuable insights into current trends in the demand for homes. Mortgage interest is usually approximately 6% necessary for considerable growth on the housing market. Although the total pending housing sales is slightly higher than last year, it is surprising to see that this data remains stable despite increased speeds in 2025. The seasonal peak period for our data has ended.

Weekly pending the sale of the past week in recent years:

• 2025: 405,489
• 2024: 395.923

All in all, the housing market not only experiences a healthier stock year, but the question even holds, even with increased mortgage interest, crazy newspaper heads and one bear market print in shares. Not too poor if you ask me.

10-year revenue and mortgage interest

In my forecast of 2025 I expected the following series:

• Mortgage interest between 5.75% and 7.25%
• The return of 10 years fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.70%

We had an eventful week, because both inflation reports came in tame, which brought the yield of 10 years to only 4.32% in the night then Israel attacked Iran. However, we did not see a push in the 10-year return or the US dollar as a safety game on Friday while the shares were sold. All in all, the mortgage interest rate did not move too much, because we went from 6.95% to 6.85% and the week finished at 6.89%. Improved mortgage spreads limit the upward damage in the mortgage interest when the return of 10 years increases.

Mortgage spreads

The mortgage spreads have been raised since 2022, but have improved since their peak in 2023. We experienced some drama with the spreads because the markets had treated the rates, but the things have improved as the market has calmed down. It is crucial to see that spreads are getting better on days when the return of 10 years rises, because that limits the damage of a higher return of 10 years.

If the spreads were as bad as at the height of 2023, the mortgage interest would currently be 0.71% higher. Conversely, if the spreads return to their normal reach, the mortgage interest rate would be 0.79% to 0.59 %% lower than today’s level. Historically, mortgage spreads usually varied between 1.60% and 1.80%.

Weekly inventory data

The most important development in the housing market for me is the growth of the inventory in 2024 and 2025. As someone who describes the housing market as unhealthy in the end of 2020 and furiously unhealthy in the beginning of 2022, the stock growth that we have experienced in the past two years was a blessing. Two weeks ago the increase in the inventory was a bit slow, but we had a good pick up this week, because the housing market goes back to normal stock levels, which will lay the foundation for many years to come.

• Weekly inventory change (June 6, 13, June): Inventory Rose van 808.564 Unpleasant 825,761
• The same week last year (June 7, 14 June): Inventory came from 611.543 Unpleasant 620.622

New frame data

One of the predictions I had wrong last year was that the new entries would reach at least 80,000 a week during the seasonal peak period – that did not happen. This year I have maintained that prediction and so far we have been twice 80,000. In the past two weeks, however, growth has been slower than I expected. I hoped to see for a few weeks with figures that vary between 80,000 and 100,000, but I don’t have time to let that take place. We saw a bouncing this week, but again, lower than I wanted.

To give you some perspective, during the years of the bubble crash of the house, new entries have been rising between 250,000 and 400,000 a week for many years. Last week’s new list data in the past two years:

• 2025: 78,289
• 2024: 71,486

Price percentage

In a typical year, about a third of the house price reductions experience, which emphasizes the dynamic nature of the housing market. Many homeowners adjust their selling prices as stock levels rise and the mortgage interest rate remains increased.

For my price forecast of 2025 I expected a modest rise in house prices by around 1.77%. This suggests that 2025 will again see a negative real house price forecast. In 2024, my prediction of an increase of 2.33% turned out to be inaccurate, especially because the mortgage interest rate fell to 6% and the demand improved in the second half of 2024. As a result, house prices continued to rise by 4% in 2024.

The rise in price reductions this year compared to last year reinforces my cautious growth forces for 2025.

The coming week: Fed Week, Israel and Iran, the sale of retail and housing starts

Do I have to add something that goes beyond that head? We have a huge week ahead with significant data releases, one Federal Reserve Meeting and constant questions about the war in the middle east. Moreover, unemployed claims have been trending lately.

The key to the FED meeting is to listen to their language on the risk of labor versus inflation, because the labor data has become softer but the inflation data has not yet deteriorated. As always, I will keep a close eye on the data this week.