Have you already stimulated the lower mortgage interest rate?

What is encouraging is that the mortgage interest rate has not fallen below 6.64% this entire year, indicating that we have the potential to grow more if the mortgage interest rate goes to 6%. So although the data is better than last year, the context is crucial. It also takes about 30-90 days for purchase apps to filter in the sales data.

Weekly pending sale

The last weekly current contract details of Altos Offers valuable insights into current trends in the demand for homes. Last year, after the rates fell to 6%, this data line showed noticeable improvement versus previous years. However, because the mortgage interest rate began to rise late in 2024 and has remained increased by 2025, it has facilitated a small but consistent decrease in awaiting sales year after year. It is not getting worse here with our current weekly sale, but I don’t see much improvement yet.

Weekly current contracts for the past week in recent years:

• 2025: 323,456
• 2024: 334.017
• 2023: 314,696

We have a better day on purchase applications, but in anticipation of the sale of home, nothing is remarkable.

10-year revenue and mortgage interest

In my forecast of 2025 I expect the following series:

• The mortgage interest is between 5.75% and 7.25%
• The return of 10 years will fluctuate between 3.80% and 4.70%

What an exciting week it has been, full of data and headlines that kept everyone sharp! The 10-year proceeds brought us on a considerable roller coaster ride. It started the week around 4.24%, took a dive to around 4.11% in the midst of a whirlwind of market and economic drama and then made a sharp turn. Just when you thought it would fall again for the job report, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stepped in confidently declaration that the economy was in good condition. That announcement sent the return of 10 years pair of scissors On Friday, closing near the highlights of the week!

In last week’s housing market tracker we mentioned that to lower bond returns and mortgage interest rates, we really had to see a sale in shares and weaker economic data to lower considerable jump after that significant jump. Although we see something of those unfolding, the yields eventually climbed higher. This shift came when the concern of the trade war began to alleviate and some positive economic indicators arose towards the end of the week. What a wild ride!

Which is more interesting this week This statement from Fed Governor Bowman: “Although the FOMC has been aimed at reducing inflation in recent years, because we continue to make progress when approaching our 2%goal, I expect that the labor market and economic activity will become a greater factor in the policy discussions of the FOMC.”

Work on inflation, someone? With that in mind, read my labor model before 2025 after the job report on how you get there!

Mortgage spreads

Today’s housing market would look very different if the mortgage spreads were not improved in 2024 and 2025. We usually see these spreads floating between 1.60% and 1.80%. If we were still struggling with the challenging mortgage spreads that defined 2023, we would now be confronted with a stunning mortgage interest rate.

Conversely, if spreads are more tailored to historical standards, our current mortgage interest can be somewhere between 0.79% to 0.89% lower. Imagine – if today’s spreads were normal again, we would enjoy mortgage interest among 6%. That would be a game exchanger, people.

Looking ahead to the rest of this year, I only expect a modest improvement in the mortgage spreads, around 0.27% to 0.41% below the average level of 2.54% that we saw in 2024. We have been reached almost a few times this year.

Weekly inventory data

The best story for housing is the growth of the home inventory we have seen since the historically low levels we saw in 2022. Last week we had a slight growth week for week and we should now start the seasonal increase in the active inventory. The closer we get at normal levels, the better it will be for housing in the long term and the growth seen means that if the mortgage interest rates lower, we have sufficient delivery to prevent escalating growth price.

• Weekly inventory change (28 February-7 March): Inventory Rose van 639.485 Unpleasant 642,359
• The same week last year (March 1, March 8): Inventory was released 498,339 Unpleasant 500,579
• The soil of all time was in 2022 240,497
• The stock peak before 2024 was 739,434
• For some context were active lists for the same week in 2015 1,081,867

New frame data

The new listing data from Altos reflects houses that come on the market without an immediate contract, which gives us a real -time picture of every sales pressure in the market. In the last two years, the two lowest years were for new list data in history, and they were also not healthy years for the latest data data.

Last year I had high expectations that we would see at least 80,000 new lists per week during the seasonal months, but unfortunately that did not flourish. This year, however, I have a strong feeling that we can finally hit that goal!

To give you some perspective, during the years of the bubble crash of the house, new entries between 250,000 and 400,000 a week. When I saw a slight dip two weeks ago, I admit that I felt worried about our slow new frame growth this year.

But then came last week; Wow, we have a good song! Although the increase may not be dramatic compared to 2024 levels, we are getting closer to that elusive 80,000 Mark – something that we have not reached in the past two years. It is a small victory, but it is a victory, and it puts a big smile on my face!

The national new list data for last week in recent years:

• 2025: 63,858
• 2024: 59,243
• 2023: 50.687

Price reduction percentage

In an average year, about a third of all houses usually experience a price reduction, which reflects the usual dynamics of the housing market. As the inventory increases and the mortgage interest rate remains increased, the price percentage data is higher than if the rates were lower.

Before 2025 I predict a house price growth of 1.77%, indicating another year of negative growth in house prices. As the stock levels increase and the mortgage interest rate remains high, the negative growth in house prices is expected for 2025. The percentage of price reductions has increased earlier this year compared to previous years, so my current prediction remains intact. If the rates fall in the future, we can re -evaluate the weekly data.

Price percentages for last week in recent years:

• 2025: 33.6%
• 2024: 31%
• 2023: 31%

The coming week: data from the inflation week and vacancies

This week promises to be a crucial in the data world. We not only anticipate crucial inflation reports, but we are also preparing for one of the most important labor data releases of the Federal Reserve: the data of the vacancy.

While we look ahead, the data from the vacancies will play a crucial role, especially when we approach the middle of the year. With the recent promotions of the government affecting federal employees, the tightening of the money supply and the continuous twists and turns of the trade war, this data can reveal some fascinating trends. It will be intriguing to see if the labor market showed signs of softening, even before these changes took place. Last week the unemployed claim data of his recent peak fell.

Stay informed because the insights we win can form our understanding of the economy in the coming months.