Does the recent wild mortgage interest influence the housing data?

Last week the financial markets reminded us of their dynamics as the 10-year return rose sharply, making the mortgage interest higher, but did it affect the data of the housing market? We have witnessed a solid year with purchase request data and our hanging home sales contract data recently shown on annual basis growth. However, break this last step in the rates finally the streak.

Application -Buy data

Imagine a scenario in which the markets did not struggle with the aftershocks of the Godzilla rates. In that case, the Buzz for the year would all be about the expectations of the housing market based on housing data – despite that increased mortgage interest rate. The latest data of the purchase request continues to grow with a growth of a week-week week of 9% and an increase of 10% on an annual basis, while the mortgage interest consistently fluctuates above 6.64% for most of the year!

Here are the weekly data for 2025:

• 7 Positive Lectures
• 3 Negative measurements
• 3 PLAT PRINTS

It is important to note that the situation was very different last year when the mortgage interest rate began to rise at the beginning of the year to 7.50%. Last year we had a weekly purchase application trend with 14 weeks of negative data prints and only two positive and flat prints. Consequently, I expect a hit for the data of the purchasing applications next week, in accordance with the trends that have been observed in the data in the data in recent years when the rates rise quickly in a week of a positive week. That said, if the mortgage interest can approach 6%, it will be an easy SLAM -Dunk for the existing growth of housing sales in 2025, because the bar is historically low.

Weekly pending sales

The last weekly total current contract details of Altos Offers valuable insights into current trends in the demand for homes. Usually a mortgage interest rate is needed to get closer to 6% trends to get real growth in the data lines of the housing demand, but we have recently collected some of the weekly sales data, and now our total is positive year after year.

Weekly current contracts for the past week in recent years:

• 2025: 377,633
  2024: 371,457
• 2023: 335.017

10-year revenue and mortgage interest

In my forecast of 2025 I expect the following series:

• The mortgage interest is between 5.75% and 7.25%
• The return of 10 years will fluctuate between 3.80% and 4.70%

In the previous tracker article I emphasized that the return of 10 years would have fallen unlikely under 4% without Godzilla rates. Last Sunday evening I expressed his concern that a single explanation from the White House could lead to a significant increase in the revenues that would be the face of the face, which should ideally have led the return of 10 years to 4.35%. The events of Thursday evening and Friday, however, revealed an increased stress that sells on the bond market, which caused some concern in the White House, because they had predicted a lower returns of 10 years.

This week has been a challenge for mortgage interest and the prevailing volatility is understandably to create problems for consumers and professionals in the industry. As a result, we can anticipate a decrease in purchasing applications next week. We hope that the circumstances will stabilize quickly and promote a more predictable environment for all involved.

Mortgage spreads

The mortgage spreads began to show positive trends in 2024 and at the beginning of the year that improvement continued. With a background of market volatility, however, the spreads became recently. Despite the less favorable spreads, if the mortgage spreads were as bad as in 2023, the mortgage interest would be almost 8%and the entire favorable trend in homes would not have happened this year. If the mortgage spreads were normal again today, we would be almost 6%.

Weekly inventory data

Spring is finally here, and I can’t help it, but I feel excited about the incredible story that unfolds on the housing market before 2024 and 2025 – the growth of the inventory! Although we have not yet reached a completely normal level, our progress is a positive trend for the entire housing market, which is no longer wild unhealthy. We still had a week of good stock growth.

• Weekly Stock Change (April 4 – April 11): Inventory Steeg from 691.197- 702.434
• The same week last year (April 5 -12 April): Inventory rose from 512,930-526.479
• The soil of all time was in 2022 at 240,497
• The stock peak before 2024 was 739,434
• For some context, active entries for the same week in 2015 were 1,021,567

New frame data

The New offers are a positive story on the housing market in 2025. Last year I estimate that at least 80,000 houses would be mentioned during the top season months, and my prediction was only eliminated with 5,000. This year we will achieve that goal. About 70% to 80% of home sellers and buyers, and this shift reflects a positive trend while working on a more balanced market.

To give you perspective, during the years of the bubble crash of the house, new entries have been rising between 250,000 and 400,000 a week for many years. The growth in new list data only tries to be normal again, with the seasonal peaks vary between 80,000 and 110,000 a week. The national new list data for last week in recent years:

• 2025: 76,270
• 2024: 66,776
• 2023: 48,556

Price percentage

In a typical year, about a third of all houses experience a price reduction, with the dynamic nature of the housing market. While we navigate the current increase in stock levels and relatively high mortgage interest rates, we see an increase in the proportion of houses that price adjustments are undergoing. This trend reflects the evolution of the market and our ability to adapt to changing circumstances. However, we have seen some stablization in this data line in the last two weeks. Now that the rates have risen, we will observe what effects can happen on the next single rates if the rates remain increased.

For the rest of 2025 I confidently project a modest increase in house prices by around 1.77%. At the same time, this suggests another year of negative growth in price prices – the current availability of houses and increased mortgage interest again this prospect. A significant shift in the mortgage interest to around 6% could change this process. My 2024 prediction of 2.33% turned out to be wrong, because lower rates made my prediction too low in 2024.

The increase in price reduction this year compared to the latter reinforces my conviction that my conservative growth price forecast for 2025 is solid and well supported. Below are the price reductions of previous weeks in recent years:

• 2025: 35%
• 2024: 32%
• 2023: 30%

  

The coming week: nothing matters until markets calm down

Just like last week, the excitement continues! Until the markets get some clarity, the economic data takes a rear seat. And guess? Although CPI and PPI inflation figures were lower than expectations, the impact was almost non -existent!

Next week it will be warming up with a whole series of fed presidents who are ready to share their thoughts. Don’t miss Monday’s podcast, in which I will dive into a hot topic: Can President Trump FIRE chairman Jerome Powell? Moreover, we have crucial retail sales and the start of data that comes to us – these are the most important indicators we have to check while we navigate through the economic landscape. A few exemptions were also made this morning on Big Tech products from China, so there is more moving news.