Do the mortgage interest rate to fall lower?

Conversely, if spreads are more tailored to historical standards, our current mortgage interest can be somewhere between 0.82% to 0.92% lower. Imagine – if today’s spreads were normal again, we would enjoy mortgage interest among 6%. What a game changer that could be! However, one thing that happens in the markets is that the spreads have improved lately when the bond returns are higher and not too much when the return of 10 years falls. Even with that, the spreads improvement has been vital since 2023 for housing.

Looking ahead to the rest of this year, I only expect a modest improvement in the mortgage spreads, around 0.27% to 0.41% below the average level of 2.54% that we saw in 2024. We have been reached almost a few times this year.

Application -Buy data

So far, the purchase request data is somewhat negative, but perform better than last year. Here is the data until from week to week from week to week:

• 2 flat measurements
• 3 Negative measurements
• 2 positive lectures

Last week the weekly data was flat but 3% year after year. In the past two weeks we had better data on an annual basis with purchase apps, even with unfavorable weekly reports. Last year, when the rates varied between 6.75% and 7.50%, the purchasing application data showed 14 negative, two positive and two flat measurements.

Weekly pending sale

The last weekly current contract details of Altos Research Offers valuable insights into current trends in the demand for homes. Last year, after the rates fell to 6%, this data line showed noticeable improvement versus previous years.

However, because the mortgage interest rate began to rise late in 2024 and has remained increased by 2025, it has facilitated a small but consistent decrease in awaiting sales year after year. We still show higher growth compared to 2023 levels, but not much. Our housing data improves when the mortgage interest rate is almost 6%, so we are not there yet before 2025 and spring is correct on the door.

Weekly current contracts for the past week in recent years:

• 2025: 324,432
• 2024: 337,271
• 2023: 317,190

Weekly inventory data

The best story for housing is the home inventory growth that works from the historically low levels we saw in 2022. I certainly thought we would see a more noticeable increase in the inventory before March came, but the inventory fell last week. The clear seasonal increase should take place soon. Although I am somewhat disappointed with stock data this year, it is still a big plus that we are far from the lows of 2022, especially if the mortgage interest rate falls back to 6%.

• Weekly inventory change (20 February 27-Febrarari): Inventory fell from 640.221 Unpleasant 639.485
• The same week last year (23 February 1 March): Inventory Rose van 497,657 Unpleasant 498,339
• The soil of all time was in 2022 240,497
• The stock peak before 2024 was 739,434
• For some context were active lists for the same week in 2015 962.785

New frame data

The new listing data from Altos Research reflects houses that come on the market without an immediate contract, which gives us a real -time picture of every sales pressure in the market. In the last two years, the two lowest years were for new list data in history, and they were not healthy years for the latest data data.

Last year I predicted that we would get at least 80,000 new lists per week during the seasonal peak months, but it didn’t happen. This year I think we should hit that goal. During the years of bubble years, this data line ran between 250,000 and 400,000 a week. Last week was a bit disappointing with the mild fall from week to week.

The national new list data for last week in recent years:

• 2025: 53,394
• 2024: 52,189
• 2023: 48,156

Price percentage

In an average year, about a third of all houses usually experience a price reduction, which reflects the usual dynamics of the housing market. As the inventory increases and the mortgage interest rate remains increased, the price percentage data is higher than if the rates were lower.

For 2025 I predict the growth of the home price of 1.77%, indicating another year of negative growth in the home prize. As the stock rises increase and the mortgage interest rate remains increased, the growth of the negative real home prize for 2025 should be in the making. The price -cut percentage data has increased earlier this year than in other years, so my current prediction looks intact. If the rates fall in the future, we can visit the weekly data again.

Price percentages for last week in recent years:

• 2025: 33.7%
• 2024: 31%
• 2023: 31%

The coming week: Jobs Friday is the key

It is a job week, but without the data from the vacancies, as that report will come the following week, which means that the BLS Jobs Friday report will be even more important. The unemployed claim data becomes more interesting because last week had a large peak that was not related to the federal employees who lose their jobs.

We will have some speeches from the Fed President, production data, data from the units’ laboratories and a few more reports this week, but jobs will be the key after a huge step lower in the proceeds. For me, since the end of 2022, it is always about the labor data about inflation: every time we have seen a good step lower in the mortgage interest rate, it has come with economic growth or labor, and 2025 is no different. If the Federal Reserve cuts 1% more at a certain moment in the future, it will be easier to get mortgage interest to fall to 6%.