Climate change risk does not affect migration patterns: Redfin
The acceleration of climate change has led to more frequent and severe natural disasters, but that hasn’t stopped people from leaving high-risk parts of the country.
A new report from Redfin shows that migration patterns in 2023 were not interrupted by the reality of climate change, as moving trends appear to be driven by factors other than natural disaster risk.
U.S. counties at high risk of wildfires absorbed a net influx of 63,365 people in 2023, while in counties at high flood risk, 16,144 more people moved in than out.
“Rising insurance costs and increasing natural disasters are driving thousands of Americans out of high-risk areas, but those people are quickly being replaced by others for whom climate change is not the top concern,” Redfin economist Elijah de la Campa said in the paper. report. “For many Americans, things like cost of living and proximity to family take precedence over catastrophe risk, which can feel less immediate and more abstract.”
Florida and Texas are critical to net inflow and outflow trends. After the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, people flocked to both states — especially those from states with more expensive housing and stricter public health restrictions.
Of the ten counties at high risk of flooding with the most inflows, six are in Florida (Brevard, St. Johns, Volusia, Manatee, Sarasota and Lee) and two are in Texas (Fort Bend and Brazoria). Fort Bend has the most inflow of any county with a high flood risk.
Of the 10 counties at high risk for wildfires with the most inflows, five are in Texas (Parker, Hunt, Grayson, Wise and Midland) and three are in Colorado (Weld, Douglas and Larimer). The county with the most influx despite the high fire risk is Riverside County, California.
Of the fire-affected counties with the most outflows, five were in California, with Ventura County’s net outflow of 6,754 residents leading the way. But Redfin argued that California’s outflow is likely due to high housing costs, not concerns about climate change.
“The cost-benefit analysis appears to be shifting in places like California and Florida, where skyrocketing home insurance costs and an increase in high-profile disasters have had a tangible impact on residents and made national news,” de la Campa said.
