New offers slump. Have home sellers already stopped?
New frame data
Over the past two years, the lowest periods for new home statements in history, in view of the fact that 70% to 80% of home sellers are also home buyers. Last year I predicted that we would see around 80,000 new entries per week during peak periods, but that goal was short and only reached 75,000. So far we have exceeded 80,000 lists this year for two weeks and I hope to see for a few weeks above this threshold before the seasonal decline starts.
What we want to avoid is an early downward trend and more sellers who leave the market, similar to what we experienced in the second half of 2022, which was not ideal. I hope for a new upward bouncing in new offers in the coming week. Traditionally, seasonal peaks vary for new offers from 80,000 to 110,000 a week, as observed from 2013 to 2019.
To give you some perspective, during the years of the bubble crash of the house, new entries have been rising between 250,000 and 400,000 a week for many years. This is how many new offers we had last week in the past two years:
- 2025: 73,433
- 2024: 72,012
Weekly inventory data
The most important development in the housing market for me is the growth of the inventory in 2024 and 2025. As someone who describes the housing market as unhealthy in the end of 2020 and furiously unhealthy in the beginning of 2022, the stock growth that we have experienced in the past two years was a blessing. Although it took some time for my hope in February 2021 with regard to higher rates, it is better than never. This week we saw a slow inventory growth, but I expect it to pick up next week.
- Weekly stock change (30 May 6-June): Inventory Rose van 803.519 Unpleasant 808.564
- The same week last year (31 May-7-June): Inventory Rose van 604,922 Unpleasant 611.543
Price percentage
In a typical year, about a third of the house price reductions experience, which emphasizes the dynamic nature of the housing market. Many homeowners adjust their selling prices as stock levels rise and the mortgage interest rate remains increased.
For my price forecast of 2025 I expect a modest rise in house prices by around 1.77%. This suggests that 2025 will again see a pessimistic real home prize forecast. In 2024 my prediction of an increase of 2.33% turned out to be inaccurate, especially since the mortgage interest rate decreased to 6% and the question improved in the second half of 2024. As a result, house prices increased by 4% in 2024.
The rise in price reductions this year compared to last year reinforces my cautious growth forces for 2025.
10-year revenue and mortgage interest
In my forecast of 2025 I expected the following series:
- The mortgage interest is between 5.75% and 7.25%
- The return of 10 years will fluctuate between 3.80% and 4.70%
We have just finished Jobs Week and it did not disappoint with the volatility in the return of 10 years. However, because the mortgage spreads have been improved, the rate volatility was not as important as it could have been. Last week the return of 10 years after a weaker ADP report decreased, but then rose after the Jobs Friday report beating estimates. Moreover, Trump called a potential encounter with China on Monday, which led to a small increase in bond returns afterwards. The mortgage interest started the week at 6.96%, dropped to 6.87%after the ADP report and then finished the week at 6.97%.
Mortgage spreads
The mortgage spreads have been raised since 2022, but have improved since their peak in 2023. We experienced some drama with the spreads because the markets had treated the rates, but the things have improved as the market has calmed down. It has been essential to see spreads better on days when the return of 10 years goes up, because that limits the damage of a higher return of 10 years.
If the spreads were as bad as at the height of 2023, the mortgage interest would currently be 0.67% higher. Conversely, if the spreads return to their normal reach, the mortgage interest rate would be 0.83% to 0.63 %% lower than today’s level. Historically, mortgage spreads usually varied between 1.60% and 1.80%.
Application -Buy data
Last week, purchasing requests increased by 18% on an annual basis, a decrease of 4% compared to the previous week. We now have an 18 -week winning series for positive growth on an annual basis and five consecutive weeks of double digits of growth during the top season of May. Now that May is over, the peak volume period of the season that has traditionally ended is. So 2025 was the first net positive year for purchase apps in many years. This data line has confused many people – in this recent daily podcast from Housingwire I try to explain why we have seen positive growth.
Here are the weekly data for 2025:
- 10 Positive Lectures
- 8 Negative measurements
- 3 PLAT PRINTS
- 18 consecutive weeks of positive data on an annual basis
Total current turnover
The last weekly information about total pending sale of Altos Offers valuable insights into current trends in the demand for homes. Mortgage interest is usually approximately 6% necessary for considerable growth on the housing market. Although the total pending housing sales is slightly higher than last year, it is surprising to see that this data remains stable despite increased speeds in 2025. The seasonal peak period for our data has ended.
Weekly pending the sale of the past week in recent years:
- 2025: 402.833
- 2024: 393,632
Weekly pending sales
Our weekly hanging home sales offers a glimpse of week to week in the data; However, this data line can also be influenced by holiday weekends and shows the jump of a week on sale. So I will reserve the judgment until next week, just as I did with the new listing data. Yet we show growth on an annual basis.
Weekly pending sales for last week in recent years:
- 2025: 69.363
- 2024: 67,649
The coming week: inflation and bond auctions
This week is again the inflation week with two flation -up reports and we have a few bond auctions that can move the markets. You also just never know what kind of crazy newspaper heads we get in this area! On Monday, President Trump will meet China to discuss trade agreements, so we will keep an eye on that.
In one of the podcasts next week I will share my view of the inflation data for the rest of the year, because many people, including FED presidents, expect that inflation will rise from the recent low of 2.1%. We also have the most important weekly unemployed claim report and this data line starts to tension.
As always, it will be crucial to see how the bond market reacts to inflation and labor data, because the battlefield is set for the rest of the year with Godzilla rates that are still in place. And it will be interesting to see how new lists of data react after the inflation week.
