The mortgage demand still remains firm with increased rates

Application -Buy data

Last week we observed a significant rebound in this data line after experiencing three consecutive weeks from week to week decrease with the preservation of positive figures on an annual basis. Buy applications have risen by 11% week after week and 13% year after year. I concentrate on this index from the second week from January to the first week of May. Next week we will see if we can achieve a 100% positive data on an annual basis during the heat for months on this index. Traditionally, the total volumes fall after May.

Here are the weekly purchase request data for 2025 so far:

• 8 Positive Lectures
• 6 Negative measurements
• 3 PLAT PRINTS

I am more discussed in detailed about why we see this kind of growth of data in 2025 in this recent article.

Total current turnover

The last weekly total pending sales data of Altos Offers valuable insights into current trends in the demand for homes. Usually a mortgage interest rate is needed to get closer to 6% trends to get a real growth in housing. The total hanging housing sales data delay, which demonstrates part of the impact of higher rates, but not too much damage has been done. We must not forget that the mortgage interest rate went higher at the beginning of April, and although the rates above 7% did not last long, we saw some delay in the data. Nevertheless, housing sales were stuck compared to last year, with increased rates.

Weekly pending the sale of the past week in recent years:

• 2025: 398,653
• 2024: 393.788
• 2023: 368,490

10-year revenue and mortgage interest

In my forecast of 2025 I expected the following series:

• The mortgage interest is between 5.75% and 7.25%
• The return of 10 years will fluctuate between 3.80% and 4.70%

The return of 10 years ended the week, because we all wait to hear about what is coming out of commercial conversations with China this weekend. We received positive unemployed claim data this week and had a considerable bond auction on Thursday. It is encouraging to note that the mortgage spreads improve on days when the bond returns rise, especially during substantial increases. Despite a few fluctuations in the 10-year proceeds in the past week, the mortgage interest rate remained relatively stable.

Mortgage spreads

The mortgage spreads have been raised since 2022, but have improved since their peak in 2023. However, recent market volatility has deteriorated the spreads, which is usually historically the case. On a positive comment, because the markets behave better, the spreads have improved, which is good news, especially on days when the return of 10 years rises.

If the spreads were as bad as at the height of 2023, the mortgage interest would currently be 0.66 % higher. Conversely, if the spreads return to their normal reach, the mortgage interest would be 0.64% to 0.84% ​​lower than today’s level. That would mean almost 6% mortgage interest. Historically, mortgage spreads must vary between 1.60%-1.80%.

Weekly inventory data

The most encouraging development on the housing market for 2024 and 2025 is the increase in the inventory. For the housing market to work more effectively in the long term, we needed inventory to return to pre-pandemic level. The seasonal increase in the inventory is desperately needed, because the country works back to normal.

• Weekly inventory change (May 3, 9 May): Inventory Rose van 744,225 Unpleasant 755,895
• The same week last year (May 4, May 10): Inventory Rose van 556,291 Unpleasant 568.557
• The soil of all time was in 2022 240,497
• The stock peak before 2025 is 755,895
• For some context were active lists for the same week in 2015 1,109,727

New frame data

It finally happened – we have included more than 80,000 new offers! Last year I predicted that the new data data would easily reach 80,000 during the seasonal peak weeks, but that did not happen. In fact, the lowest new entries ever have registered in history in the last two years. However, this year I have held on to that prediction again and we finally achieved it in May 2025.

To give you some perspective, during the years of the bubble crash of the house, new entries have been rising between 250,000 and 400,000 a week for many years. The growth in new list data is only the market that tries to become normal again, where the seasonal peaks vary between 80,000 and 110,000 a week. The national new list data for last week in recent years:

• 2025: 80.338
• 2024: 68,793
• 2023: 61,911

Price percentage

In a typical year, about a third of the house price reductions experience, which emphasizes the dynamic nature of the housing market. As the stock levels rise and mortgage interest rates increase, many homeowners adjust their selling prices.

For my price forecast of 2025 I expect a modest rise in house prices by around 1.77%. This suggests that 2025 can again see a negative real house price forecast. A potential factor that can lead to an upward adjustment in my prediction is a decrease in mortgage interest rate to around 6%, which could make my estimates too low again.

In 2024 my prediction of an increase of 2.33% turned out to be inaccurate because it was too low, mainly as a result of mortgage interest at 6%.

The rise in price reductions this year compared to last year reinforces my cautious growth for 2025. Below is a summary of the price reductions of previous weeks in recent years:

• 2025: 36.7%
• 2024: 33%
• 2023: 29%

The coming week: China Handelsnieuws, Inflation Week, Homes starts and more

We have an important week ahead. We will receive updates about the outcome of the commercial interviews with China. Moreover, various Federal reserve presidents will speak. It is also the inflation week and we have housing data. As always claim to be released unemployed data on Thursday morning. Last week we observed a decrease in the number of unemployed claims.

This week’s most important focus is on observing how the bond and stock markets react to Handelsnieuws. It is encouraging that some deal discussions take place because the world was not prepared for Godzilla rates. We must also check whether the data request data can continue its positive trend on an annual basis.