Netflix Q1 2025 Profit preview
Netflix, who have awarded financial analysts with the undisputed leader in subscription streaming, starts the Q1 income of the media and entertainment sector this week. Wall Street expects Netflix to report strong results for the period – the first quarter will no longer make subscribers – and that the company is relatively well positioned to withstand economic headwind.
Netflix is planned to report the results of Q1 2025 Thursday, April 17, after the market. The consensus estimates of Wall Street are for quarterly sales at $ 10.51 billion (an increase of 12% year by year) with a profit per share of $ 5.66 (an increase of 7%), according to LSEG Data & Analytics. That is slightly above the earlier guidelines for the turnover of $ 10.42 billion and a profit per share of $ 5.58.
“In view of macro volatility, Netflix as demonstrably regard the most defensive stock in our coverage universe in the midst of any broader delay,” said TD Cowen analysts led by John Blackledge in a research memorandum of 8 April.
To start with, Netflix will not have a significant direct impact of the rates of the Trump administration. The TD Cowen analysts also quoted “robust underlying BIZ question of more and more global content slate”, the strong value proposition of Netflix, in particular compared to out-of-home entertainment options, and continuous “secular acceptance of streaming video”. TD Cowen has a ‘buy’ rating on Netflix with a price objective of 12 months of $ 1,150/share.
So far, Netflix shares have performed better in 2025 than the wider market: the share has so far increased more than 7%, compared to a decrease of more than 10% for the R&P 500 index in the midst of President Trump and escalating trade war with China.
Seaport Research Partners Equity Analyst David Joyce noted in the same way that Netflix ‘is one of the cheapest forms of entertainment per hour of engagement.
“In general, what makes NFLX (and other streamers of course) a defensive residence-kationalternatief when we enter into a recession is that it is probably one of the last editions that is cut from the budget of a consumer,” Joyce wrote in a note of 14 April. The monthly price of Netflix Premium Service in the US costs as much as “a single IMAX ticket in large markets for 2 hours, or a fifth of the average price of a single Live Nation ticket for a 2-hour event-to-it will not mention the compared to Pro Sports Events or Theme Parks,” he added. Joyce rates Netflix a “buy” with a price objective of $ 1,025/share of 12 months.
As Netflix announced last year, starting with the first quarter of 2025, it will stop reporting paid subscribers and average income per member (arm) at a regular quarterly basis, saying that these are not as useful as user involvement or financial statistics such as turnover and operational margin. (Netflix says that it “will continue to announce paid memberships if we cross important milestones.”) For Q4 of 2024, Netflix reported 18.9 million net new global subscribers to reach analyst expectations twice at the end of the year 301.6 million.
With the decision to stop reporting the figures of subscribers, “Netflix is now free to concentrate exclusively on sales growth,” wrote Wedbush Securities analyst Alicia Reese in a note of 11 April. The company implemented price increases in all levels in the US and other countries in January; Even if that results in cancellations of subscribers, Netflix “can cover up subscribers and training-downs and at the same time show meaningful revenue growth.”
In the absence of subscriber figures, TD Cowen’s Black clothing expects investors to look for updates around Netflix’s ‘Bargeone ads’. Netflix is planning to launch first-party advertising tech stack in the US in April after he rolled it out in Canada, and “we will look for color on potential timing of the remaining 10 advertisement markets later in 2025”, Blackledge wrote.
Netflix earlier this year increased its 2025 prospects for turnover between $ 43.5 billion and $ 44.5 billion (an increase of $ 500 million compared to the earlier prediction) and for the operational margin to 29%, one percentage point of his earlier guidance. With a forecast of $ 18 billion in content expenditure for 2025, “there is a meaningful upward potential for the guidelines of Netflix,” wrote Wedbush’s Reese.
Before 2025, the company advertised the return of three of its largest TV shows – “Squid Game”, “Wednesday” and “Stranger Things” – and said that it is planning to “grow into new areas such as live programming and games.” Note that Netflix WWE in the US, Canada, the UK and Latin America in January 2025 excluding WWE “Monday night raw” streamed.
“Netflix is positioned to speed up the advertisement of the advertisement for the coming years by adding more live events, improving his advertising solutions and targeting and broadening the content strategy,” wrote Reese. The analyst maintains an “outperform” rating on Netflix with a price objective of $ 1,150/share of 12 months, as a result of a P/E multiple of 34x on the estimate of Wedbush’s 2027 EPS.
In the meantime, according to the monthly study by TD Cowen among 2500 American consumers, Netflix remains the most popular way to watch video capacity in the living room. Asked which platform consumers use the most to watch video capacity on their TV, Netflix retained the top position in February 2025 with 25%of the respondents, followed by YouTube (15%) and basic cable (10%). “We think that the wide catalog of Netflix creates a sustainable advantage over several genres over time,” Blackledge wrote.
((Displayed above: Netflix’s hit Limited series “Adolescence”))
