Lower mortgage interest rate the demand for homes on the way to spring

• 4 Positive lectures
• 3 Negative measurements
• 2 flat prints

We recently experienced a few weeks of positive growth on an annual basis, which has not happened much in recent years.

The mortgage interest has risen somewhat lately, but there is still a silver lining. If we can keep a positive trend when the rates fluctuate around 6.64%, we see a boost in the sale of living if the mortgage interest simply goes to 6%.

The crucial factor here is the duration of lower mortgage interest. I spoke more about this topic during a Recent episode From the Daily Podcast of the Woningwire, where I unpacked the data and the implications.

Last year, when the mortgage interest ranged from 6.75% to 7.50%, the weekly data looked like this:

• 14 Negative prints
• 2 flat prints
• 2 Positive Prints

There was no growth on an annual basis for reporting when comparing 2024 and 2023. And don’t forget that the mortgage interest rate fell to around 6% at the end of 2022 and early 2023. At the beginning of 2024 the mortgage interest rose slightly to 6.63%.

Weekly pending sale

The last weekly current contract details of Altos Offers valuable insights into current trends in the demand for homes. Last year, after the rates fell to 6%, this data line showed noticeable improvement versus previous years. However, because the mortgage interest rate began to rise late in 2024 and has remained increased by 2025, it has facilitated a small but consistent decrease in awaiting sales year after year.

In anticipation of weekly sales, it is not getting worse, but we only see a slight improvement. With Purchase apps it usually takes 30 to 90 days before sales data are available and you need about 12 to 14 weeks of positive data to create a growth story. Our shorter weekly contract data lines, however, show improvement.

Weekly current contracts for the past week in recent years:

• 2025: 333,385
• 2024: 345.502
• 2023: 320.804

10-year revenue and mortgage interest

In my forecast of 2025 I expect the following series:

• The mortgage interest is between 5.75% and 7.25%
• The return of 10 years will fluctuate between 3.80% and 4.70%

Last week was a whirlwind of data and headlines! Despite a barrage of striking headlines and a sale that the stock market has sent in correctionBond returns and mortgage interest rates that did not fall surprisingly. The bond market kept its ground after lows on Monday. This may seem enigmatic, but I try to understand the chaos on this podcast.

Mortgage spreads

Today’s housing market would look very different if the mortgage spreads were not improved in 2024 and 2025. We usually see these spreads hanging around between 1.60% and 1.80%. If we were still confronted with the challenging mortgage spreads from 2023, we would currently look at mortgage interest that is currently a surprising 0.74% higher.

On the other hand, if the spreads looked more like what we saw in the past, our current mortgage interest can be about 0.76% to 0.86% lower. Imagine – if those spreads return to normal, we could look at mortgage interest almost 6%.

Looking ahead to the rest of this year, I only expect a modest decrease in mortgage spreads, around 0.27% to 0.41%, working with the average of 2.54% that we saw in 2024. We have been reached almost a few times this year, but there are not yet there.

Weekly inventory data

Spring is finally here, and you know what that means – it’s time for the usual storage boost that happens every year! I have to say that the best part of the housing story in 2024 has viewed the active inventory to return to a more normal level. Although it did not quite come, the progress we have seen was positive.

• Weekly stock change (March 7, March 14): Inventory Rose van 642,359 Unpleasant 655,626
• The same week last year (March 8, March 15): Inventory came from 500,579 Unpleasant 507,160
• The soil of all time was in 2022 240,497
• The stock peak before 2024 was 739,434
• For some context were active lists for the same week in 2015 982,369

New frame data

One of my most important housing forecasts for 2024 was ultimately a swing and a miss. I heartily believed that new mentions during the peak weeks of the season would affect at least 80,000 – this was the norm before the pandemic shook things. I was finally eliminated with around 5,000 offers, and that miscalculation had an influence on the growth ear of my home prize. I thought we would see a modest increase of 2.33%, but I underestimate the market.

But there is good news after a rocky start to the year: it feels like we are finally getting closer to that elusive 80,000 minimum.

To give you some perspective, during the years of the bubble crash of the house, new entries have been rising between 250,000 and 400,000 a week for many years. So the growth in new list data just tries to get normal again, where the season peaks between 80,000-110,000 would vary a week.

The national new list data for last week in recent years:

• 2025: 68,191
• 2024: 59,542
• 2023: 41,415

Price reduction percentage

In an average year, about a third of all houses usually experience a price reduction, which reflects the usual dynamics of the housing market. As the inventory increases and the mortgage interest rate remains increased, the price percentage data is higher than if the rates were lower.

While we look ahead to 2025, I predict a modest house price growth of 1.77%. We will probably see another year of negative growth in the prize prices. With more houses available and high mortgage interest, I should be right unless the mortgage interest rate drops to 6%. That is how I lost my prognosis of the price growth of 2.33%.

Interestingly, the percentage of price reductions rose earlier this year compared to previous years, so my prediction remains the same. Here is a fast snapshot of the price reductions of last week in recent years:

• 2025: 34%
• 2024: 31%
• 2023: 31%

The coming week: Fed Week, Retail and Housing Details

On Monday’s daily podcast we live at the complexity of the Federal Reserve ‘The upcoming meeting and the possibility of a new policy age with so many strangers to consider. I look forward to the Q&A session.

Also don’t forget that we have retail data on Monday, which can shake up the bond market a bit. And let’s keep an eye on the unemployed claim data that will be released on Thursday; It looks better in the past two weeks.

We will also have a lot of housing data this week, including the confidence of the builders, the start of housing and existing home sales, so escaped for the Fed Week and what other hand heads in the war of war that we get.